A novel hybrid model based on two-stage data processing and machine learning for forecasting chlorophyll-a concentration in reservoirs
The accurate and efficient prediction of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is crucial for the early detection of algal blooms in reservoirs. Nevertheless, predicting Chl-a concentration in multivariate time series poses a significant challenge due to the complex interrelationships within the aquat...
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| Published in | Environmental science and pollution research international Vol. 31; no. 1; pp. 262 - 279 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Berlin/Heidelberg
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
01.01.2024
Springer Nature B.V |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1614-7499 0944-1344 1614-7499 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11356-023-31148-6 |
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| Abstract | The accurate and efficient prediction of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is crucial for the early detection of algal blooms in reservoirs. Nevertheless, predicting Chl-a concentration in multivariate time series poses a significant challenge due to the complex interrelationships within the aquatic environment and the discrete and non-stationary nature of online monitoring of water quality data. To address the aforementioned issue, this paper proposes a novel prediction model named SGMD-KPCA-BiLSTM (SKB) for predicting Chl-a concentration. The model combines two-stage data processing and machine learning (ML). To capture nonlinear relationships in multivariate time series data, the optimal data subset is determined by combining symplectic geometry mode decomposition (SGMD) and kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). This subset is then input into a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model, and the model’s hyperparameters are optimized using the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) to improve the accuracy of predictions. The performance of the model was evaluated at Qiaodian Reservoir in Shandong, China. To assess its superiority, the evaluation criteria included the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (
R
2
), frequency histograms of the prediction error, and the Taylor diagram. The prediction performance of five single models, namely the back-propagation (BP) neural network, support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural network with long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM), and BiLSTM, as well as three hybrid models, namely SGMD-LSTM, SGMD-KPCA-LSTM, and SGMD-BiLSTM, were compared against the SKB model. The results demonstrated that the SKB model performs best in predicting Chl-a concentration (
R
2
= 96.19%, RMSE = 1.05, MAE = 0.65, MAPE = 0.08). It significantly reduced the prediction error compared to other models for comparison. Furthermore, the multi-step predictive capabilities of the SKB model are also discussed. The analysis shows a decline in predictive performance with larger prediction time steps, and the SKB model exhibits slightly superior performance compared to the other model at corresponding prediction intervals. The model has significant advantages in terms of its ability to accurately predict the non-smooth and nonlinear Chl-a sequences observed by the online monitoring system. This study presents a potential solution for controlling and preventing reservoir eutrophication, as well as an innovative approach for predicting water quality.
Graphical Abstract |
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| AbstractList | The accurate and efficient prediction of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is crucial for the early detection of algal blooms in reservoirs. Nevertheless, predicting Chl-a concentration in multivariate time series poses a significant challenge due to the complex interrelationships within the aquatic environment and the discrete and non-stationary nature of online monitoring of water quality data. To address the aforementioned issue, this paper proposes a novel prediction model named SGMD-KPCA-BiLSTM (SKB) for predicting Chl-a concentration. The model combines two-stage data processing and machine learning (ML). To capture nonlinear relationships in multivariate time series data, the optimal data subset is determined by combining symplectic geometry mode decomposition (SGMD) and kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). This subset is then input into a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model, and the model's hyperparameters are optimized using the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) to improve the accuracy of predictions. The performance of the model was evaluated at Qiaodian Reservoir in Shandong, China. To assess its superiority, the evaluation criteria included the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R
), frequency histograms of the prediction error, and the Taylor diagram. The prediction performance of five single models, namely the back-propagation (BP) neural network, support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural network with long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM), and BiLSTM, as well as three hybrid models, namely SGMD-LSTM, SGMD-KPCA-LSTM, and SGMD-BiLSTM, were compared against the SKB model. The results demonstrated that the SKB model performs best in predicting Chl-a concentration (R
= 96.19%, RMSE = 1.05, MAE = 0.65, MAPE = 0.08). It significantly reduced the prediction error compared to other models for comparison. Furthermore, the multi-step predictive capabilities of the SKB model are also discussed. The analysis shows a decline in predictive performance with larger prediction time steps, and the SKB model exhibits slightly superior performance compared to the other model at corresponding prediction intervals. The model has significant advantages in terms of its ability to accurately predict the non-smooth and nonlinear Chl-a sequences observed by the online monitoring system. This study presents a potential solution for controlling and preventing reservoir eutrophication, as well as an innovative approach for predicting water quality. The accurate and efficient prediction of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is crucial for the early detection of algal blooms in reservoirs. Nevertheless, predicting Chl-a concentration in multivariate time series poses a significant challenge due to the complex interrelationships within the aquatic environment and the discrete and non-stationary nature of online monitoring of water quality data. To address the aforementioned issue, this paper proposes a novel prediction model named SGMD-KPCA-BiLSTM (SKB) for predicting Chl-a concentration. The model combines two-stage data processing and machine learning (ML). To capture nonlinear relationships in multivariate time series data, the optimal data subset is determined by combining symplectic geometry mode decomposition (SGMD) and kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). This subset is then input into a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model, and the model’s hyperparameters are optimized using the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) to improve the accuracy of predictions. The performance of the model was evaluated at Qiaodian Reservoir in Shandong, China. To assess its superiority, the evaluation criteria included the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R²), frequency histograms of the prediction error, and the Taylor diagram. The prediction performance of five single models, namely the back-propagation (BP) neural network, support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural network with long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM), and BiLSTM, as well as three hybrid models, namely SGMD-LSTM, SGMD-KPCA-LSTM, and SGMD-BiLSTM, were compared against the SKB model. The results demonstrated that the SKB model performs best in predicting Chl-a concentration (R² = 96.19%, RMSE = 1.05, MAE = 0.65, MAPE = 0.08). It significantly reduced the prediction error compared to other models for comparison. Furthermore, the multi-step predictive capabilities of the SKB model are also discussed. The analysis shows a decline in predictive performance with larger prediction time steps, and the SKB model exhibits slightly superior performance compared to the other model at corresponding prediction intervals. The model has significant advantages in terms of its ability to accurately predict the non-smooth and nonlinear Chl-a sequences observed by the online monitoring system. This study presents a potential solution for controlling and preventing reservoir eutrophication, as well as an innovative approach for predicting water quality. The accurate and efficient prediction of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is crucial for the early detection of algal blooms in reservoirs. Nevertheless, predicting Chl-a concentration in multivariate time series poses a significant challenge due to the complex interrelationships within the aquatic environment and the discrete and non-stationary nature of online monitoring of water quality data. To address the aforementioned issue, this paper proposes a novel prediction model named SGMD-KPCA-BiLSTM (SKB) for predicting Chl-a concentration. The model combines two-stage data processing and machine learning (ML). To capture nonlinear relationships in multivariate time series data, the optimal data subset is determined by combining symplectic geometry mode decomposition (SGMD) and kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). This subset is then input into a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model, and the model’s hyperparameters are optimized using the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) to improve the accuracy of predictions. The performance of the model was evaluated at Qiaodian Reservoir in Shandong, China. To assess its superiority, the evaluation criteria included the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), frequency histograms of the prediction error, and the Taylor diagram. The prediction performance of five single models, namely the back-propagation (BP) neural network, support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural network with long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM), and BiLSTM, as well as three hybrid models, namely SGMD-LSTM, SGMD-KPCA-LSTM, and SGMD-BiLSTM, were compared against the SKB model. The results demonstrated that the SKB model performs best in predicting Chl-a concentration ( R 2 = 96.19%, RMSE = 1.05, MAE = 0.65, MAPE = 0.08). It significantly reduced the prediction error compared to other models for comparison. Furthermore, the multi-step predictive capabilities of the SKB model are also discussed. The analysis shows a decline in predictive performance with larger prediction time steps, and the SKB model exhibits slightly superior performance compared to the other model at corresponding prediction intervals. The model has significant advantages in terms of its ability to accurately predict the non-smooth and nonlinear Chl-a sequences observed by the online monitoring system. This study presents a potential solution for controlling and preventing reservoir eutrophication, as well as an innovative approach for predicting water quality. Graphical Abstract The accurate and efficient prediction of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is crucial for the early detection of algal blooms in reservoirs. Nevertheless, predicting Chl-a concentration in multivariate time series poses a significant challenge due to the complex interrelationships within the aquatic environment and the discrete and non-stationary nature of online monitoring of water quality data. To address the aforementioned issue, this paper proposes a novel prediction model named SGMD-KPCA-BiLSTM (SKB) for predicting Chl-a concentration. The model combines two-stage data processing and machine learning (ML). To capture nonlinear relationships in multivariate time series data, the optimal data subset is determined by combining symplectic geometry mode decomposition (SGMD) and kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). This subset is then input into a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model, and the model’s hyperparameters are optimized using the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) to improve the accuracy of predictions. The performance of the model was evaluated at Qiaodian Reservoir in Shandong, China. To assess its superiority, the evaluation criteria included the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), frequency histograms of the prediction error, and the Taylor diagram. The prediction performance of five single models, namely the back-propagation (BP) neural network, support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural network with long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM), and BiLSTM, as well as three hybrid models, namely SGMD-LSTM, SGMD-KPCA-LSTM, and SGMD-BiLSTM, were compared against the SKB model. The results demonstrated that the SKB model performs best in predicting Chl-a concentration (R2 = 96.19%, RMSE = 1.05, MAE = 0.65, MAPE = 0.08). It significantly reduced the prediction error compared to other models for comparison. Furthermore, the multi-step predictive capabilities of the SKB model are also discussed. The analysis shows a decline in predictive performance with larger prediction time steps, and the SKB model exhibits slightly superior performance compared to the other model at corresponding prediction intervals. The model has significant advantages in terms of its ability to accurately predict the non-smooth and nonlinear Chl-a sequences observed by the online monitoring system. This study presents a potential solution for controlling and preventing reservoir eutrophication, as well as an innovative approach for predicting water quality. The accurate and efficient prediction of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is crucial for the early detection of algal blooms in reservoirs. Nevertheless, predicting Chl-a concentration in multivariate time series poses a significant challenge due to the complex interrelationships within the aquatic environment and the discrete and non-stationary nature of online monitoring of water quality data. To address the aforementioned issue, this paper proposes a novel prediction model named SGMD-KPCA-BiLSTM (SKB) for predicting Chl-a concentration. The model combines two-stage data processing and machine learning (ML). To capture nonlinear relationships in multivariate time series data, the optimal data subset is determined by combining symplectic geometry mode decomposition (SGMD) and kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). This subset is then input into a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model, and the model's hyperparameters are optimized using the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) to improve the accuracy of predictions. The performance of the model was evaluated at Qiaodian Reservoir in Shandong, China. To assess its superiority, the evaluation criteria included the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), frequency histograms of the prediction error, and the Taylor diagram. The prediction performance of five single models, namely the back-propagation (BP) neural network, support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural network with long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM), and BiLSTM, as well as three hybrid models, namely SGMD-LSTM, SGMD-KPCA-LSTM, and SGMD-BiLSTM, were compared against the SKB model. The results demonstrated that the SKB model performs best in predicting Chl-a concentration (R2 = 96.19%, RMSE = 1.05, MAE = 0.65, MAPE = 0.08). It significantly reduced the prediction error compared to other models for comparison. Furthermore, the multi-step predictive capabilities of the SKB model are also discussed. The analysis shows a decline in predictive performance with larger prediction time steps, and the SKB model exhibits slightly superior performance compared to the other model at corresponding prediction intervals. The model has significant advantages in terms of its ability to accurately predict the non-smooth and nonlinear Chl-a sequences observed by the online monitoring system. This study presents a potential solution for controlling and preventing reservoir eutrophication, as well as an innovative approach for predicting water quality.The accurate and efficient prediction of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is crucial for the early detection of algal blooms in reservoirs. Nevertheless, predicting Chl-a concentration in multivariate time series poses a significant challenge due to the complex interrelationships within the aquatic environment and the discrete and non-stationary nature of online monitoring of water quality data. To address the aforementioned issue, this paper proposes a novel prediction model named SGMD-KPCA-BiLSTM (SKB) for predicting Chl-a concentration. The model combines two-stage data processing and machine learning (ML). To capture nonlinear relationships in multivariate time series data, the optimal data subset is determined by combining symplectic geometry mode decomposition (SGMD) and kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). This subset is then input into a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model, and the model's hyperparameters are optimized using the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) to improve the accuracy of predictions. The performance of the model was evaluated at Qiaodian Reservoir in Shandong, China. To assess its superiority, the evaluation criteria included the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), frequency histograms of the prediction error, and the Taylor diagram. The prediction performance of five single models, namely the back-propagation (BP) neural network, support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), convolutional neural network with long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM), and BiLSTM, as well as three hybrid models, namely SGMD-LSTM, SGMD-KPCA-LSTM, and SGMD-BiLSTM, were compared against the SKB model. The results demonstrated that the SKB model performs best in predicting Chl-a concentration (R2 = 96.19%, RMSE = 1.05, MAE = 0.65, MAPE = 0.08). It significantly reduced the prediction error compared to other models for comparison. Furthermore, the multi-step predictive capabilities of the SKB model are also discussed. The analysis shows a decline in predictive performance with larger prediction time steps, and the SKB model exhibits slightly superior performance compared to the other model at corresponding prediction intervals. The model has significant advantages in terms of its ability to accurately predict the non-smooth and nonlinear Chl-a sequences observed by the online monitoring system. This study presents a potential solution for controlling and preventing reservoir eutrophication, as well as an innovative approach for predicting water quality. |
| Author | Wang, Xingju Zhao, Shen Jiang, Xin Zhao, Ranhang Yu, Wenqing |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Wenqing surname: Yu fullname: Yu, Wenqing organization: Department of Civil Engineering and Water Conservancy, Shandong University – sequence: 2 givenname: Xingju surname: Wang fullname: Wang, Xingju organization: Department of Civil Engineering and Water Conservancy, Shandong University – sequence: 3 givenname: Xin surname: Jiang fullname: Jiang, Xin organization: Water Resources Research Institute of Shandong Province – sequence: 4 givenname: Ranhang orcidid: 0009-0001-9420-1422 surname: Zhao fullname: Zhao, Ranhang email: ranhang-z@sdu.edu.cn organization: Department of Civil Engineering and Water Conservancy, Shandong University, Qianfoshan Campus of Shandong University – sequence: 5 givenname: Shen surname: Zhao fullname: Zhao, Shen organization: Water Resources Research Institute of Shandong Province, School of Water Conservancy and Environment, University of Jinan |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38015396$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1007_s11356_024_33722_y crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jenvman_2024_121463 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jenvman_2025_124832 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ecolind_2025_113215 |
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| Keywords | Chlorophyll-a Bidirectional long short-term memory Kernel principal component analysis Prediction Symplectic geometry mode decomposition Eutrophication |
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| SubjectTerms | algae Algal blooms algorithms Aquatic environment Aquatic Pollution Artificial neural networks Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Back propagation networks China Chlorophyll Data processing Earth and Environmental Science Ecotoxicology Environment Environmental Chemistry Environmental Health Eutrophication geometry Kernel functions Learning algorithms Long short-term memory Machine learning model validation Monitoring systems Multivariate analysis Neural networks Passeriformes Performance prediction prediction Prediction models principal component analysis Principal components analysis regression analysis Research Article Reservoirs Root-mean-square errors Search algorithms Sequences Support vector machines Time series time series analysis Waste Water Technology Water Management Water monitoring Water Pollution Control Water quality Water quality management |
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| Title | A novel hybrid model based on two-stage data processing and machine learning for forecasting chlorophyll-a concentration in reservoirs |
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