Expert judgments calibration and combination for assessment of river levee failure probability

•Assessment of levee safety requires several fields of expertise.•Expert evaluations are frequently subject to bias.•The use of Cooke model allows aggregating expert evaluations.•Calibration via the Cooke model reduces cognitive biases.•We propose calibration variables based on the sliding mechanism...

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Published inReliability engineering & system safety Vol. 188; pp. 377 - 392
Main Authors Hathout, Michel, Vuillet, Marc, Carvajal, Claudio, Peyras, Laurent, Diab, Youssef
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Barking Elsevier Ltd 01.08.2019
Elsevier BV
Elsevier
Subjects
Aerospace industry
Agglomeration
Calibration
Civil engineering
Confidence
Elicitation
Environmental Sciences
Failure
Floods
Hydraulic structures
Hydrology
Judgments
Levees
Levees & battures
Levees, Expert judgement
Psychology
Reliability analysis
Reliability engineering
Rivers
Statistical analysis
Structural reliability
Subjective probability
Structural reliability
Elicitation
Levees, Expert judgement
Calibration
Subjective probability
CALIBRATION
LEVEES
SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
ELICITATION
STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY
EXPERT JUDGEMENT
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN0951-8320
1879-0836
1879-0836
DOI10.1016/j.ress.2019.03.019

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Abstract •Assessment of levee safety requires several fields of expertise.•Expert evaluations are frequently subject to bias.•The use of Cooke model allows aggregating expert evaluations.•Calibration via the Cooke model reduces cognitive biases.•We propose calibration variables based on the sliding mechanism. In civil engineering, the utilisation of expert judgement is important for evaluating the reliability of structures whose failure behaviour is little known and difficult to quantify. This article presents the application of the approaches of elicitation, calibration and aggregation of expert opinions to evaluate the reliability of river levees. These approaches have seldom been used in the field of French hydraulic structures whereas there is growing interest for them in other countries, concerning structures reliability and other fields such as aerospace industry, nuclear industry, hydrology, statistics, economics, psychology etc. This article proposes a quantitative approach to the use of expert judgement for evaluating river levee failure probability. An application to the case of an existing river levee is presented. The approach developed assesses the expert opinions according to their calibration (statistical accuracy) and their informativeness, then aggregates them in a single calibrated opinion. Applying the proposed weighting and aggregation procedure reduces variability in the probability of failure estimate, then it provides a better probabilistic distribution of aggregated expert opinion than of individual expert opinions. The results allow identifying a trend of aggregated expert opinions that point towards over- or lack of confidence.
AbstractList In civil engineering, the utilisation of expert judgement is important for evaluating the reliability of structures whose failure behaviour is little known and difficult to quantify. This article presents the application of the approaches of elicitation, calibration and aggregation of expert opinions to evaluate the reliability of river levees. These approaches have seldom been used in the field of French hydraulic structures whereas there is growing interest for them in other countries, concerning structures reliability and other fields such as aerospace industry, nuclear industry, hydrology, statistics, economics, psychology etc. This article proposes a quantitative approach to the use of expert judgement for evaluating river levee failure probability. An application to the case of an existing river levee is presented. The approach developed assesses the expert opinions according to their calibration (statistical accuracy) and their informativeness, then aggregates them in a single calibrated opinion. Applying the proposed weighting and aggregation procedure reduces variability in the probability of failure estimate, then it provides a better probabilistic distribution of aggregated expert opinion than of individual expert opinions. The results allow identifying a trend of aggregated expert opinions that point towards over- or lack of confidence.
•Assessment of levee safety requires several fields of expertise.•Expert evaluations are frequently subject to bias.•The use of Cooke model allows aggregating expert evaluations.•Calibration via the Cooke model reduces cognitive biases.•We propose calibration variables based on the sliding mechanism. In civil engineering, the utilisation of expert judgement is important for evaluating the reliability of structures whose failure behaviour is little known and difficult to quantify. This article presents the application of the approaches of elicitation, calibration and aggregation of expert opinions to evaluate the reliability of river levees. These approaches have seldom been used in the field of French hydraulic structures whereas there is growing interest for them in other countries, concerning structures reliability and other fields such as aerospace industry, nuclear industry, hydrology, statistics, economics, psychology etc. This article proposes a quantitative approach to the use of expert judgement for evaluating river levee failure probability. An application to the case of an existing river levee is presented. The approach developed assesses the expert opinions according to their calibration (statistical accuracy) and their informativeness, then aggregates them in a single calibrated opinion. Applying the proposed weighting and aggregation procedure reduces variability in the probability of failure estimate, then it provides a better probabilistic distribution of aggregated expert opinion than of individual expert opinions. The results allow identifying a trend of aggregated expert opinions that point towards over- or lack of confidence.
Author Vuillet, Marc
Hathout, Michel
Peyras, Laurent
Diab, Youssef
Carvajal, Claudio
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Keywords Structural reliability
Elicitation
Levees, Expert judgement
Calibration
Subjective probability
CALIBRATION
LEVEES
SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
ELICITATION
STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY
EXPERT JUDGEMENT
Language English
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Snippet •Assessment of levee safety requires several fields of expertise.•Expert evaluations are frequently subject to bias.•The use of Cooke model allows aggregating...
In civil engineering, the utilisation of expert judgement is important for evaluating the reliability of structures whose failure behaviour is little known and...
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StartPage 377
SubjectTerms Aerospace industry
Agglomeration
Calibration
Civil engineering
Confidence
Elicitation
Environmental Sciences
Failure
Floods
Hydraulic structures
Hydrology
Judgments
Levees
Levees & battures
Levees, Expert judgement
Psychology
Reliability analysis
Reliability engineering
Rivers
Statistical analysis
Structural reliability
Subjective probability
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Title Expert judgments calibration and combination for assessment of river levee failure probability
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