Russia–Ukraine conflict and its impact on global inflation: an event study-based approach

PurposeThis study investigates how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacts global inflation.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from 60 countries for 30 months, from January 2020 to June 2022. An event study methodology has been employed to check...

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Published inJournal of economic studies (Bradford) Vol. 50; no. 8; pp. 1824 - 1846
Main Authors Maurya, Prince Kumar, Bansal, Rohit, Mishra, Anand Kumar
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Glasgow Emerald Publishing Limited 22.11.2023
Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Subjects
Commodities
Conflict
Consumption
COVID-19
Crude oil prices
Disease transmission
Economic analysis
Food
Foreign exchange rates
Geopolitics
Global economy
Inflation
International finance
Invasions
Metals
Pandemics
Petroleum products
Price indexes
Proximity
Russia-Ukraine War
Securities markets
Stock exchanges
Stock prices
Trade disputes
Trade relations
Volatility
War
Middle East
Asia
United States > US
Europe
China
Ukraine
Iraq
Russia
India
Russian invasion
Consumer price index
Inflation
Economy
Event study
Russia–Ukraine conflict
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN0144-3585
1758-7387
DOI10.1108/JES-01-2023-0003

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Abstract PurposeThis study investigates how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacts global inflation.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from 60 countries for 30 months, from January 2020 to June 2022. An event study methodology has been employed to check abnormal variation in the CPI, after classifying country-specific monthly data into nine groups.FindingsThe outcome revealed that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered inflation globally. However, the severity of inflation in the sample countries is determined by their geographical proximity and trading activity with the countries in conflict. A significant rise in inflation was observed among major European economies during the invasion. As the war continues, the increase in the price of essential commodities is evident worldwide.Originality/valueThe war literature till now has concentrated on stock markets, energy markets, exchange rates and precious metals. Since no previous research has attempted to quantify the abnormal effect of the war on domestic and global inflation, the current study will shed much-needed light on the subject.
AbstractList PurposeThis study investigates how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacts global inflation.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from 60 countries for 30 months, from January 2020 to June 2022. An event study methodology has been employed to check abnormal variation in the CPI, after classifying country-specific monthly data into nine groups.FindingsThe outcome revealed that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered inflation globally. However, the severity of inflation in the sample countries is determined by their geographical proximity and trading activity with the countries in conflict. A significant rise in inflation was observed among major European economies during the invasion. As the war continues, the increase in the price of essential commodities is evident worldwide.Originality/valueThe war literature till now has concentrated on stock markets, energy markets, exchange rates and precious metals. Since no previous research has attempted to quantify the abnormal effect of the war on domestic and global inflation, the current study will shed much-needed light on the subject.
PurposeThis study investigates how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacts global inflation.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from 60 countries for 30 months, from January 2020 to June 2022. An event study methodology has been employed to check abnormal variation in the CPI, after classifying country-specific monthly data into nine groups.FindingsThe outcome revealed that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered inflation globally. However, the severity of inflation in the sample countries is determined by their geographical proximity and trading activity with the countries in conflict. A significant rise in inflation was observed among major European economies during the invasion. As the war continues, the increase in the price of essential commodities is evident worldwide.Originality/valueThe war literature till now has concentrated on stock markets, energy markets, exchange rates and precious metals. Since no previous research has attempted to quantify the abnormal effect of the war on domestic and global inflation, the current study will shed much-needed light on the subject.
Author Bansal, Rohit
Mishra, Anand Kumar
Maurya, Prince Kumar
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Keywords Russian invasion
Consumer price index
Inflation
Economy
Event study
Russia–Ukraine conflict
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Snippet PurposeThis study investigates how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacts global inflation.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses monthly consumer...
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StartPage 1824
SubjectTerms Commodities
Conflict
Consumption
COVID-19
Crude oil prices
Disease transmission
Economic analysis
Food
Foreign exchange rates
Geopolitics
Global economy
Inflation
International finance
Invasions
Metals
Pandemics
Petroleum products
Price indexes
Proximity
Russia-Ukraine War
Securities markets
Stock exchanges
Stock prices
Trade disputes
Trade relations
Volatility
War
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Title Russia–Ukraine conflict and its impact on global inflation: an event study-based approach
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