Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing
A new methodology to analyze the nuclear material accountability for pyroprocessing system is developed. The Pu-to-244Cm ratio quantification is one of the methods for Pu accountancy in pyroprocessing. However, an uncertainty in the Pu-to-244Cm ratio due to the non-uniform composition in used fuel a...
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| Published in | Nuclear engineering and technology Vol. 51; no. 1; pp. 198 - 206 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Elsevier
01.02.2019
한국원자력학회 |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1738-5733 2234-358X 2234-358X |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.net.2018.08.015 |
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| Abstract | A new methodology to analyze the nuclear material accountability for pyroprocessing system is developed. The Pu-to-244Cm ratio quantification is one of the methods for Pu accountancy in pyroprocessing. However, an uncertainty in the Pu-to-244Cm ratio due to the non-uniform composition in used fuel assemblies can affect the accountancy of Pu. A random variable, LOPu, is developed to analyze the probability of detection for Pu diversion of hypothetical scenarios at a pyroprocessing facility considering the uncertainty in Pu-to-244Cm ratio estimation. The analysis is carried out by the hypothesis testing and the event tree method. The probability of detection for diversion of 8 kg Pu is found to be less than 95% if a large size granule consisting of small size particles gets sampled for measurements. To increase the probability of detection more than 95%, first, a new Material Balance Area (MBA) structure consisting of more number of Key Measurement Points (KMPs) is designed. This multiple KMP-measurement for the MBA shows the probability of detection for 8 kg Pu diversion is greater than 96%. Increasing the granule sample number from one to ten also shows the probability of detection is greater than 95% in the most ranges for granule and powder sizes. Keywords: Safeguards, Nuclear material accountancy, Pyroprocessing, Probability of detection, Loss of Pu, Nuclear material diversion, SERPENT |
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| AbstractList | A new methodology to analyze the nuclear material accountability for pyroprocessing system is developed. The Pu-to-244Cm ratio quantification is one of the methods for Pu accountancy in pyroprocessing. However, an uncertainty in the Pu-to-244Cm ratio due to the non-uniform composition in used fuel assemblies can affect the accountancy of Pu. A random variable, LOPu, is developed to analyze the probability of detection for Pu diversion of hypothetical scenarios at a pyroprocessing facility considering the uncertainty in Pu-to-244Cm ratio estimation. The analysis is carried out by the hypothesis testing and the event tree method. The probability of detection for diversion of 8 kg Pu is found to be less than 95% if a large size granule consisting of small size particles gets sampled for measurements. To increase the probability of detection more than 95%, first, a new Material Balance Area (MBA) structure consisting of more number of Key Measurement Points (KMPs) is designed. This multiple KMP-measurement for the MBA shows the probability of detection for 8 kg Pu diversion is greater than 96%. Increasing the granule sample number from one to ten also shows the probability of detection is greater than 95% in the most ranges for granule and powder sizes. Keywords: Safeguards, Nuclear material accountancy, Pyroprocessing, Probability of detection, Loss of Pu, Nuclear material diversion, SERPENT A new methodology to analyze the nuclear material accountability for pyroprocessing system is developed. The Pu-to-244Cm ratio quantification is one of the methods for Pu accountancy in pyroprocessing. However, an uncertainty in the Pu-to-244Cm ratio due to the non-uniform composition in used fuelassemblies can affect the accountancy of Pu. A random variable, LOPu, is developed to analyze theprobability of detection for Pu diversion of hypothetical scenarios at a pyroprocessing facility consideringthe uncertainty in Pu-to-244Cm ratio estimation. The analysis is carried out by the hypothesis testing andthe event tree method. The probability of detection for diversion of 8 kg Pu is found to be less than 95% ifa large size granule consisting of small size particles gets sampled for measurements. To increase theprobability of detection more than 95%, first, a new Material Balance Area (MBA) structure consisting ofmore number of Key Measurement Points (KMPs) is designed. This multiple KMP-measurement for theMBA shows the probability of detection for 8 kg Pu diversion is greater than 96%. Increasing the granulesample number from one to ten also shows the probability of detection is greater than 95% in the mostranges for granule and powder sizes. KCI Citation Count: 0 |
| Author | Chirayath, Sunil S. Woo, Seung Min |
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| Title | Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing |
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