Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran

By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change on surface water availability in Iran over the twenty-first century. Our findings show that increasing water withdrawal in...

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Published in	Climatic change Vol. 152; no. 3-4; pp. 379 - 391
Main Authors	Ashraf, Samaneh, AghaKouchak, Amir, Nazemi, Ali, Mirchi, Ali, Sadegh, Mojtaba, Moftakhari, Hamed R., Hassanzadeh, Elmira, Miao, Chi-Yuan, Madani, Kaveh, Mousavi Baygi, Mohammad, Anjileli, Hassan, Arab, Davood Reza, Norouzi, Hamid, Mazdiyasni, Omid, Azarderakhsh, Marzi, Alborzi, Aneseh, Tourian, Mohammad J., Mehran, Ali, Farahmand, Alireza, Mallakpour, Iman
Format	Journal Article
Language	English
Published	Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.03.2019 Springer Nature B.V
Subjects	Agricultural management anthropogenic activities Atmospheric Sciences Availability Basins Climate and human activity Climate change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Climate models Compounding Compounding effects Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Economic activities Iran Lakes Population growth Precipitation Precipitation variability Socioeconomic aspects socioeconomics Surface water Surface water availability Variability Water availability Water management Water scarcity water shortages Water storage Water stress Iran
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ISSN	0165-0009 1573-1480 1573-1480
DOI	10.1007/s10584-018-2336-6

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Abstract	By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change on surface water availability in Iran over the twenty-first century. Our findings show that increasing water withdrawal in Iran, due to population growth and increased agricultural activities, has been the main source of historical water stress. Increased levels of water stress across Iran are expected to continue or even worsen over the next decades due to projected variability and change in precipitation combined with heightened water withdrawals due to increasing population and socio-economic activities. The greatest rate of decreased water storage is expected in the Urmia Basin, northwest of Iran, (varying from ~ − 8.3 mm/year in 2010–2039 to ~ − 61.6 mm/year in 2070–2099 compared with an observed rate of 4 mm/year in 1976–2005). Human activities, however, strongly dominate the effects of precipitation variability and change. Major shifts toward sustainable land and water management are needed to reduce the impacts of water scarcity in the future, particularly in Iran’s heavily stressed basins like Urmia Basin, which feeds the shrinking Lake Urmia.
AbstractList	By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change on surface water availability in Iran over the twenty-first century. Our findings show that increasing water withdrawal in Iran, due to population growth and increased agricultural activities, has been the main source of historical water stress. Increased levels of water stress across Iran are expected to continue or even worsen over the next decades due to projected variability and change in precipitation combined with heightened water withdrawals due to increasing population and socio-economic activities. The greatest rate of decreased water storage is expected in the Urmia Basin, northwest of Iran, (varying from ~ − 8.3 mm/year in 2010–2039 to ~ − 61.6 mm/year in 2070–2099 compared with an observed rate of 4 mm/year in 1976–2005). Human activities, however, strongly dominate the effects of precipitation variability and change. Major shifts toward sustainable land and water management are needed to reduce the impacts of water scarcity in the future, particularly in Iran’s heavily stressed basins like Urmia Basin, which feeds the shrinking Lake Urmia. By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change on surface water availability in Iran over the twenty-first century. Our findings show that increasing water withdrawal in Iran, due to population growth and increased agricultural activities, has been the main source of historical water stress. Increased levels of water stress across Iran are expected to continue or even worsen over the next decades due to projected variability and change in precipitation combined with heightened water withdrawals due to increasing population and socio-economic activities. The greatest rate of decreased water storage is expected in the Urmia Basin, northwest of Iran, (varying from -8.3mm/year in 2010-2039 to -61.6mm/year in 2070-2099 compared with an observed rate of 4mm/year in 1976-2005). Human activities, however, strongly dominate the effects of precipitation variability and change. Major shifts toward sustainable land and water management are needed to reduce the impacts of water scarcity in the future, particularly in Iran's heavily stressed basins like Urmia Basin, which feeds the shrinking Lake Urmia. By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change on surface water availability in Iran over the twenty-first century. Our findings show that increasing water withdrawal in Iran, due to population growth and increased agricultural activities, has been the main source of historical water stress. Increased levels of water stress across Iran are expected to continue or even worsen over the next decades due to projected variability and change in precipitation combined with heightened water withdrawals due to increasing population and socio-economic activities. The greatest rate of decreased water storage is expected in the Urmia Basin, northwest of Iran, (varying from ~ − 8.3 mm/year in 2010–2039 to ~ − 61.6 mm/year in 2070–2099 compared with an observed rate of 4 mm/year in 1976–2005). Human activities, however, strongly dominate the effects of precipitation variability and change. Major shifts toward sustainable land and water management are needed to reduce the impacts of water scarcity in the future, particularly in Iran’s heavily stressed basins like Urmia Basin, which feeds the shrinking Lake Urmia.
Author	Ashraf, Samaneh Moftakhari, Hamed R. Madani, Kaveh Tourian, Mohammad J. Mousavi Baygi, Mohammad Mallakpour, Iman AghaKouchak, Amir Miao, Chi-Yuan Hassanzadeh, Elmira Arab, Davood Reza Nazemi, Ali Norouzi, Hamid Alborzi, Aneseh Mehran, Ali Sadegh, Mojtaba Mirchi, Ali Azarderakhsh, Marzi Farahmand, Alireza Anjileli, Hassan Mazdiyasni, Omid
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Samaneh surname: Ashraf fullname: Ashraf, Samaneh organization: University of California, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad – sequence: 2 givenname: Amir orcidid: 0000-0003-4689-8357 surname: AghaKouchak fullname: AghaKouchak, Amir email: amir.a@uci.edu organization: University of California – sequence: 3 givenname: Ali surname: Nazemi fullname: Nazemi, Ali organization: Concordia University – sequence: 4 givenname: Ali surname: Mirchi fullname: Mirchi, Ali organization: Oklahoma State University – sequence: 5 givenname: Mojtaba surname: Sadegh fullname: Sadegh, Mojtaba organization: Boise State University – sequence: 6 givenname: Hamed R. surname: Moftakhari fullname: Moftakhari, Hamed R. organization: University of California, University of Alabama – sequence: 7 givenname: Elmira surname: Hassanzadeh fullname: Hassanzadeh, Elmira organization: Polytechnique Montreal – sequence: 8 givenname: Chi-Yuan surname: Miao fullname: Miao, Chi-Yuan organization: Beijing Normal University – sequence: 9 givenname: Kaveh surname: Madani fullname: Madani, Kaveh organization: Imperial College London, Stockholm University – sequence: 10 givenname: Mohammad surname: Mousavi Baygi fullname: Mousavi Baygi, Mohammad organization: Ferdowsi University of Mashhad – sequence: 11 givenname: Hassan surname: Anjileli fullname: Anjileli, Hassan organization: University of California – sequence: 12 givenname: Davood Reza surname: Arab fullname: Arab, Davood Reza organization: Rahbord Danesh Pooya Institute – sequence: 13 givenname: Hamid surname: Norouzi fullname: Norouzi, Hamid organization: City University of New York – sequence: 14 givenname: Omid surname: Mazdiyasni fullname: Mazdiyasni, Omid organization: University of California – sequence: 15 givenname: Marzi surname: Azarderakhsh fullname: Azarderakhsh, Marzi organization: Fairleigh Dickinson University – sequence: 16 givenname: Aneseh surname: Alborzi fullname: Alborzi, Aneseh organization: University of California – sequence: 17 givenname: Mohammad J. surname: Tourian fullname: Tourian, Mohammad J. organization: University of Stuttgart – sequence: 18 givenname: Ali surname: Mehran fullname: Mehran, Ali organization: University of California – sequence: 19 givenname: Alireza surname: Farahmand fullname: Farahmand, Alireza organization: NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory – sequence: 20 givenname: Iman surname: Mallakpour fullname: Mallakpour, Iman organization: University of California
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Copyright	Springer Nature B.V. 2018 Climatic Change is a copyright of Springer, (2018). All Rights Reserved.
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PublicationDate	2019-03-01
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PublicationPlace	Dordrecht
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PublicationSubtitle	An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description, Causes and Implications of Climatic Change
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Publisher	Springer Netherlands Springer Nature B.V
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Snippet	By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities...
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SubjectTerms	Agricultural management anthropogenic activities Atmospheric Sciences Availability Basins Climate and human activity Climate change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Climate models Compounding Compounding effects Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Economic activities Iran Lakes Population growth Precipitation Precipitation variability Socioeconomic aspects socioeconomics Surface water Surface water availability Variability Water availability Water management Water scarcity water shortages Water storage Water stress
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Title	Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran
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