Dynamic decision making under ambiguity: An experimental investigation

Neoclassical economic theory assumes that whenever agents tackle dynamic decisions under ambiguity, preferences are represented by the Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) model and prior beliefs are updated according to Bayes rule, upon the arrival of partial information. Nevertheless, when one consid...

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Published inGames and economic behavior Vol. 127; pp. 28 - 46
Main Author Georgalos, Konstantinos
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Elsevier Inc 01.05.2021
Subjects
Ambiguity
Consequentialism
Dynamic consistency
Experiment
Subjective beliefs
Updating
Dynamic consistency
Experiment
Subjective beliefs
Updating
C91
D90
D81
D83
Consequentialism
Ambiguity
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN0899-8256
1090-2473
DOI10.1016/j.geb.2021.02.002

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Abstract Neoclassical economic theory assumes that whenever agents tackle dynamic decisions under ambiguity, preferences are represented by the Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) model and prior beliefs are updated according to Bayes rule, upon the arrival of partial information. Nevertheless, when one considers non-neutral ambiguity attitudes, either the axiom of dynamic consistency or of consequentialism should be relaxed. Using data from an economic experiment on dynamic choice under ambiguity, we study which of the two rationality axioms people violate, along with the question of whether this violation is part of a conscious planning strategy or not. The combination of the two, allows us to classify non-SEU subjects to three behavioural types: resolute, naïve and sophisticated. The hypothesis of Bayesian updating is rejected for more than half of the experimental population. For ambiguity non-neutral subjects, we find that the majority are sophisticated, a few are naïve and very few are resolute.
AbstractList Neoclassical economic theory assumes that whenever agents tackle dynamic decisions under ambiguity, preferences are represented by the Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) model and prior beliefs are updated according to Bayes rule, upon the arrival of partial information. Nevertheless, when one considers non-neutral ambiguity attitudes, either the axiom of dynamic consistency or of consequentialism should be relaxed. Using data from an economic experiment on dynamic choice under ambiguity, we study which of the two rationality axioms people violate, along with the question of whether this violation is part of a conscious planning strategy or not. The combination of the two, allows us to classify non-SEU subjects to three behavioural types: resolute, naïve and sophisticated. The hypothesis of Bayesian updating is rejected for more than half of the experimental population. For ambiguity non-neutral subjects, we find that the majority are sophisticated, a few are naïve and very few are resolute.
Author Georgalos, Konstantinos
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CitedBy_id crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jmateco_2021_102587
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crossref_primary_10_1093_oep_gpac015
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Keywords Dynamic consistency
Experiment
Subjective beliefs
Updating
C91
D90
D81
D83
Consequentialism
Ambiguity
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Snippet Neoclassical economic theory assumes that whenever agents tackle dynamic decisions under ambiguity, preferences are represented by the Subjective Expected...
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SubjectTerms Ambiguity
Consequentialism
Dynamic consistency
Experiment
Subjective beliefs
Updating
Title Dynamic decision making under ambiguity: An experimental investigation
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