Causality of Future and Spot Grain Prices Between China and the US：Evidence from Soybean and Corn Markets Against the Surging Import Pressure
As the boom of the world grain market phases out, the challenge for Chinese government has gradually moved from retarding grain exports to restraining imports. This study tries to examine the causalities of soybean and corn price movement among the United States（US） future market, Chinese domestic f...
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| Published in | Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University (Science) Vol. 21; no. 3; pp. 374 - 384 |
|---|---|
| Main Author | |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English Japanese |
| Published |
Shanghai
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
01.06.2016
Shanghai Jiaotong University Press |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1007-1172 1995-8188 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s12204-016-1736-x |
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| Abstract | As the boom of the world grain market phases out, the challenge for Chinese government has gradually moved from retarding grain exports to restraining imports. This study tries to examine the causalities of soybean and corn price movement among the United States（US） future market, Chinese domestic future market and Chinese spot markets. We find that the daily prices of all these three types of grains belong to I（1） series, and there are long-run integrations. Also Chinese soybean future prices adjust more quickly than its spot prices, while Chinese corn future prices adjust slower. This paper finds that the soybean price movement originates from the US future market, then passes through Chinese future market, and finally reaches Chinese spot market, while the corn price movement starts in Chinese spot market, then spreads to the future markets in both China and the US.Finally, this paper also provides some policy implications on how to release the pressure from the grain imports. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | As the boom of the world grain market phases out, the challenge for Chinese government has gradually moved from retarding grain exports to restraining imports. This study tries to examine the causalities of soybean and corn price movement among the United States（US） future market, Chinese domestic future market and Chinese spot markets. We find that the daily prices of all these three types of grains belong to I（1） series, and there are long-run integrations. Also Chinese soybean future prices adjust more quickly than its spot prices, while Chinese corn future prices adjust slower. This paper finds that the soybean price movement originates from the US future market, then passes through Chinese future market, and finally reaches Chinese spot market, while the corn price movement starts in Chinese spot market, then spreads to the future markets in both China and the US.Finally, this paper also provides some policy implications on how to release the pressure from the grain imports. As the boom of the world grain market phases out, the challenge for Chinese government has gradually moved from retarding grain exports to restraining imports. This study tries to examine the causalities of soybean and corn price movement among the United States (US) future market, Chinese domestic future market and Chinese spot markets. We find that the daily prices of all these three types of grains belong to I(1) series, and there are long-run integrations. Also Chinese soybean future prices adjust more quickly than its spot prices, while Chinese corn future prices adjust slower. This paper finds that the soybean price movement originates from the US future market, then passes through Chinese future market, and finally reaches Chinese spot market, while the corn price movement starts in Chinese spot market, then spreads to the future markets in both China and the US. Finally, this paper also provides some policy implications on how to release the pressure from the grain imports. |
| Author | 曹正伟 顾海英 周伟民 阎淑琴 伊东正一 磯田宏 |
| AuthorAffiliation | Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, China Graduate School of Bioresource and Bioenvironmental Sciences, Kyushu University, Fhkuoka 8120053, Japan |
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| Notes | As the boom of the world grain market phases out, the challenge for Chinese government has gradually moved from retarding grain exports to restraining imports. This study tries to examine the causalities of soybean and corn price movement among the United States（US） future market, Chinese domestic future market and Chinese spot markets. We find that the daily prices of all these three types of grains belong to I（1） series, and there are long-run integrations. Also Chinese soybean future prices adjust more quickly than its spot prices, while Chinese corn future prices adjust slower. This paper finds that the soybean price movement originates from the US future market, then passes through Chinese future market, and finally reaches Chinese spot market, while the corn price movement starts in Chinese spot market, then spreads to the future markets in both China and the US.Finally, this paper also provides some policy implications on how to release the pressure from the grain imports. causality grain future price spot price 31-1943/U ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
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| References | Cao, Ito, Isoda (CR4) 2012; 50 Johansen, Juselius (CR8) 1990; 52 Miao, Lu (CR3) 2012; 1 Luo, Niu (CR2) 2009; 6 Johansen (CR7) 1988; 12 Cao, Ito, Isoda (CR1) 2014; 22 Granger (CR9) 1969; 37 Ito (CR5) 1991; 27 Dickey, Fuller (CR6) 1981; 49 S S Miao (1736_CR3) 2012; 1 S Johansen (1736_CR7) 1988; 12 C W J Granger (1736_CR9) 1969; 37 D A Dickey (1736_CR6) 1981; 49 F Luo (1736_CR2) 2009; 6 S Johansen (1736_CR8) 1990; 52 Z W Cao (1736_CR1) 2014; 22 Z W Cao (1736_CR4) 2012; 50 S Ito (1736_CR5) 1991; 27 |
| References_xml | – volume: 27 start-page: 17 year: 1991 end-page: 29 ident: CR5 article-title: Analysis of competitiveness between U. S. and Thai rice exports [J] publication-title: Journal of the Faculty of Agriculture, Tottori University – volume: 49 start-page: 1057 issue: 4 year: 1981 end-page: 1072 ident: CR6 article-title: Likelihood ratio statistics for auto regressive time series with a unit root [J] publication-title: Econometrica doi: 10.2307/1912517 – volume: 52 start-page: 169 issue: 2 year: 1990 end-page: 210 ident: CR8 article-title: Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money [J] publication-title: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x – volume: 6 start-page: 16 year: 2009 end-page: 22 ident: CR2 article-title: The pass-through effect of fluctuation of international agricultural products on domestic agricultural products: An empirical study based on VAR model [J] publication-title: Journal of International Trade – volume: 22 start-page: 69 issue: 4 year: 2014 end-page: 76 ident: CR1 article-title: A study on price fluctuation in Chinese grain markets: based on ARCH-type models [J] publication-title: Agricultural Marketing Journal of Japan – volume: 1 start-page: 27 year: 2012 end-page: 34 ident: CR3 article-title: Transmission effects of international rice price on domestic market: Based on ECM model [J] publication-title: Finance and Trade Research – volume: 50 start-page: 124 year: 2012 end-page: 129 ident: CR4 article-title: Evaluation of grain price stabilization policies in China: How did China control the domestic grain prices in 2008 [J] publication-title: Japanese Journal of Farm Management – volume: 12 start-page: 231 year: 1988 end-page: 254 ident: CR7 article-title: Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors [J] publication-title: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control doi: 10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3 – volume: 37 start-page: 424 issue: 3 year: 1969 end-page: 438 ident: CR9 article-title: Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods [J] publication-title: Econometrica doi: 10.2307/1912791 – volume: 50 start-page: 124 year: 2012 ident: 1736_CR4 publication-title: Japanese Journal of Farm Management – volume: 37 start-page: 424 issue: 3 year: 1969 ident: 1736_CR9 publication-title: Econometrica doi: 10.2307/1912791 – volume: 1 start-page: 27 year: 2012 ident: 1736_CR3 publication-title: Finance and Trade Research – volume: 27 start-page: 17 year: 1991 ident: 1736_CR5 publication-title: Journal of the Faculty of Agriculture, Tottori University – volume: 52 start-page: 169 issue: 2 year: 1990 ident: 1736_CR8 publication-title: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x – volume: 49 start-page: 1057 issue: 4 year: 1981 ident: 1736_CR6 publication-title: Econometrica doi: 10.2307/1912517 – volume: 12 start-page: 231 year: 1988 ident: 1736_CR7 publication-title: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control doi: 10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3 – volume: 22 start-page: 69 issue: 4 year: 2014 ident: 1736_CR1 publication-title: Agricultural Marketing Journal of Japan – volume: 6 start-page: 16 year: 2009 ident: 1736_CR2 publication-title: Journal of International Trade |
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| SubjectTerms | Adjustment Architecture Computer Science Corn Electrical Engineering Engineering Grains Imports Life Sciences Markets Materials Science Pricing Soybeans Spots |
| Title | Causality of Future and Spot Grain Prices Between China and the US：Evidence from Soybean and Corn Markets Against the Surging Import Pressure |
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