Wind Power Generation Forecasting Using Least Squares Support Vector Machine Combined with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Principal Component Analysis and a Bat Algorithm

• Published in: Energies (Basel) Vol. 9; no. 4; p. 261
• Main Authors: Wu, Qunli, Peng, Chenyang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.04.2016
• Subjects: Accuracy; Algorithms; Alternative energy sources; Back propagation; Content analysis; Decomposition; Electricity distribution; Forecasting; Least squares method; Mathematical models; Neural networks; Optimization; Principal components analysis; Simulation; Support vector machines; Systems stability; Time series; Wind farms; Wind power; Wind power generation; China
• ISSN: 1996-1073; 1996-1073
• DOI: 10.3390/en9040261

Regarding the non-stationary and stochastic nature of wind power, wind power generation forecasting plays an essential role in improving the stability and security of the power system when large-scale wind farms are integrated into the whole power grid. Accurate wind power forecasting can make an enormous contribution to the alleviation of the negative impacts on the power system. This study proposes a hybrid wind power generation forecasting model to enhance prediction performance. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) was applied to decompose the original wind power generation series into different sub-series with various frequencies. Principal component analysis (PCA) was employed to reduce the number of inputs without lowering the forecasting accuracy through identifying the variables deemed as significant that maintain most of the comprehensive variability present in the data set. A least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) model with the pertinent parameters being optimized by bat algorithm (BA) was established to forecast those sub-series extracted from EEMD. The forecasting performances of diverse models were compared, and the findings indicated that there was no accuracy loss when only PCA-selected inputs were utilized. Moreover, the simulation results and grey relational analysis reveal, overall, that the proposed model outperforms the other single or hybrid models.