Contribution of human and biophysical factors to the spatial distribution of forest fire ignitions and large wildfires in a French Mediterranean region
Identifying the factors that drive the spatial distribution of fires is one of the most challenging issues facing fire science in a changing world. We investigated the relative influence of humans, land cover and weather on the regional distribution of fires in a Mediterranean region using boosted r...
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| Published in | International journal of wildland fire Vol. 26; no. 6; pp. 498 - 508 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Roslyn
CSIRO
2017
CSIRO Publishing |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1049-8001 1448-5516 |
| DOI | 10.1071/WF16181 |
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| Abstract | Identifying the factors that drive the spatial distribution of fires is one of the most challenging issues facing fire science in a changing world. We investigated the relative influence of humans, land cover and weather on the regional distribution of fires in a Mediterranean region using boosted regression trees and a set of seven explanatory variables. The spatial pattern of fire weather, which is seldom accounted for in regional models, was estimated using a semi-mechanistic approach and expressed as the length of the fire weather season. We found that the drivers of the spatial distribution of fires followed a fire size-dependent pattern in which human activities and settlements mainly determined the distribution of all fires whereas the continuity and type of fuels mainly controlled the location of the largest fires. The spatial structure of fire weather was estimated to be responsible for an average of 25% of the spatial patterns of fires, suggesting that climate change may directly affect the spatial patterns of fire hazard in the near future. These results enhance our understanding of long-term controls of the spatial distribution of wildfires and predictive maps of fire hazard provide useful information for fire management actions. |
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| AbstractList | Identifying the factors that drive the spatial distribution of fires is one of the most challenging issues facing fire science in a changing world. We investigated the relative influence of humans, land cover and weather on the regional distribution of fires in a Mediterranean region using boosted regression trees and a set of seven explanatory variables. The spatial pattern of fire weather, which is seldom accounted for in regional models, was estimated using a semi-mechanistic approach and expressed as the length of the fire weather season. We found that the drivers of the spatial distribution of fires followed a fire size-dependent pattern in which human activities and settlements mainly determined the distribution of all fires whereas the continuity and type of fuels mainly controlled the location of the largest fires. The spatial structure of fire weather was estimated to be responsible for an average of 25% of the spatial patterns of fires, suggesting that climate change may directly affect the spatial patterns of fire hazard in the near future. These results enhance our understanding of long-term controls of the spatial distribution of wildfires and predictive maps of fire hazard provide useful information for fire management actions. |
| Author | Ruffault, Julien Mouillot, Florent |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Julien surname: Ruffault fullname: Ruffault, Julien – sequence: 2 givenname: Florent surname: Mouillot fullname: Mouillot, Florent |
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| SubjectTerms | Biodiversity and Ecology Climate change Drought Environmental Sciences fire hazard Fire hazards fire weather Forest & brush fires Forest fires fuels (fire ecology) humans Influence Land cover Mediterranean region Regions Regression analysis Spatial distribution Topography Variables Vegetation Weather Wildfires |
| Title | Contribution of human and biophysical factors to the spatial distribution of forest fire ignitions and large wildfires in a French Mediterranean region |
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