Performance Evaluation of Probabilistic Methods Based on Bootstrap and Quantile Regression to Quantify PV Power Point Forecast Uncertainty

• Published in: IEEE transaction on neural networks and learning systems Vol. 31; no. 4; pp. 1134 - 1144
• Main Authors: Wen, Yuxin, AlHakeem, Donna, Mandal, Paras, Chakraborty, Shantanu, Wu, Yuan-Kang, Senjyu, Tomonobu, Paudyal, Sumit, Tseng, Tzu-Liang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States IEEE 01.04.2020; The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
• Subjects: Algorithms; Artificial neural networks; Bootstrap; Forecasting; Hybrid systems; Mathematical models; Neural networks; neural networks (NNs); Particle swarm optimization; particle swarm optimization (PSO); Performance evaluation; Photovoltaic cells; Photovoltaics; Predictive models; Probabilistic logic; Probabilistic methods; quantile regression (QR); Radial basis function; Reliability analysis; Soft computing; Solar power; solar power forecasting; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; Uncertainty; Wavelet transforms; Wind forecasting
• ISSN: 2162-237X; 2162-2388; 2162-2388
• DOI: 10.1109/TNNLS.2019.2918795

This paper presents two probabilistic approaches based on bootstrap method and quantile regression (QR) method to estimate the uncertainty associated with solar photovoltaic (PV) power point forecasts. Solar PV output power forecasts are obtained using a hybrid intelligent model, which is composed of a data filtering technique based on wavelet transform (WT) and a soft computing model (SCM) based on radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) that is optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The point forecast capability of the proposed hybrid WT+RBFNN+PSO intelligent model is examined and compared with other hybrid models as well as individual SCM. The performance of the proposed bootstrap method in the form of probabilistic forecasts is compared with the QR method by generating different prediction intervals (PIs). Numerical tests using real data demonstrate that the point forecasts obtained from the proposed hybrid intelligent model can be effectively used to quantify PV power uncertainty. The performance of these two uncertainty quantification methods is assessed through reliability.