Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling of North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts over the Western United States
The skill of two statistical downscaled seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) was evaluated across the western United States at spatial scales relevant to local decision-making. Both statistical downscaling approaches, spatial disaggregat...
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| Published in | Weather and forecasting Vol. 32; no. 1; pp. 327 - 341 |
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| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Boston
American Meteorological Society
01.02.2017
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0882-8156 1520-0434 1520-0434 |
| DOI | 10.1175/WAF-D-16-0117.1 |
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| Abstract | The skill of two statistical downscaled seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) was evaluated across the western United States at spatial scales relevant to local decision-making. Both statistical downscaling approaches, spatial disaggregation (SD) and bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD), exhibited similar correlative skill measures; however, the BCSD method showed superior tercile-based skill measures since it corrects for variance deflation in NMME ensemble averages. Geographic and seasonal variations in downscaled forecast skill revealed patterns across the complex topography of the western United States not evident using coarse-scale skill assessments, particularly in regions subject to inversions and variability in orographic precipitation ratios. Similarly, differences in the skill of cool-season temperature and precipitation forecasts issued when the fall El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal was strong versus ENSO-neutral years were evident across topographic gradients in the northwestern United States. |
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| AbstractList | The skill of two statistical downscaled seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) was evaluated across the western United States at spatial scales relevant to local decision-making. Both statistical downscaling approaches, spatial disaggregation (SD) and bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD), exhibited similar correlative skill measures; however, the BCSD method showed superior tercile-based skill measures since it corrects for variance deflation in NMME ensemble averages. Geographic and seasonal variations in downscaled forecast skill revealed patterns across the complex topography of the western United States not evident using coarse-scale skill assessments, particularly in regions subject to inversions and variability in orographic precipitation ratios. Similarly, differences in the skill of cool-season temperature and precipitation forecasts issued when the fall El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal was strong versus ENSO-neutral years were evident across topographic gradients in the northwestern United States. Abstract The skill of two statistical downscaled seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) was evaluated across the western United States at spatial scales relevant to local decision-making. Both statistical downscaling approaches, spatial disaggregation (SD) and bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD), exhibited similar correlative skill measures; however, the BCSD method showed superior tercile-based skill measures since it corrects for variance deflation in NMME ensemble averages. Geographic and seasonal variations in downscaled forecast skill revealed patterns across the complex topography of the western United States not evident using coarse-scale skill assessments, particularly in regions subject to inversions and variability in orographic precipitation ratios. Similarly, differences in the skill of cool-season temperature and precipitation forecasts issued when the fall El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal was strong versus ENSO-neutral years were evident across topographic gradients in the northwestern United States. |
| Author | Abatzoglou, John T. Hegewisch, Katherine C. Barbero, Renaud |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Renaud surname: Barbero fullname: Barbero, Renaud organization: School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom – sequence: 2 givenname: John T. surname: Abatzoglou fullname: Abatzoglou, John T. organization: Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho – sequence: 3 givenname: Katherine C. surname: Hegewisch fullname: Hegewisch, Katherine C. organization: Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho |
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| SubjectTerms | Atmospheric precipitations Banks (topography) Correlation analysis Decision making Disaggregation El Nino El Nino phenomena El Nino-Southern Oscillation event Environmental Sciences Evaluation General circulation models Gradients Inversions Orographic precipitation Precipitation Precipitation forecasting Ratios Seasonal variation Seasonal variations Seasons Slope Southern Oscillation Statistics Studies Temperature Temperature effects Topography Topography (geology) Variability Weather forecasting |
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| Title | Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling of North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts over the Western United States |
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