I Got Algorithm: Can There Be a Nate Silver in Intelligence?

Nate Silver is a prominent statistician / statistical probability analyst who, among other achievements, maybe best known for making a very accurate prediction of Pres Barack Obama's victory and its dimensions in the 2012 election. In doing so, he probably redeemed the reputation of sophisticat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inInternational journal of intelligence and counterintelligence Vol. 29; no. 3; pp. 525 - 544
Main Author Spielmann, Karl
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Philadelphia Routledge 02.07.2016
Taylor & Francis LLC
Subjects
Analysts
Confidence
Decision analysis
Elections
Investment
Investments
Prediction
Predictions
Probability
Reputations
Silver, Nate
Statistical analysis
Threat evaluation
Trust
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN0885-0607
1521-0561
DOI10.1080/08850607.2016.1121049

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Summary:Nate Silver is a prominent statistician / statistical probability analyst who, among other achievements, maybe best known for making a very accurate prediction of Pres Barack Obama's victory and its dimensions in the 2012 election. In doing so, he probably redeemed the reputation of sophisticated mathematical modeling that was badly tarnished by its association with the poor investment decisions that brought the financial debacle of 2008. Nevertheless, in presenting the methodology on assessing and predicting threats, the author has explicitly noted that analysts might well look to statistical probability analysis as another way to gain confidence that their particular hypothesis on some threat is on target.
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ISSN:0885-0607
1521-0561
DOI:10.1080/08850607.2016.1121049