Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets
Spot asset trading is studied in an environment in which all investors receive the same dividend from a known probability distribution at the end of each of T = 15 (or 30) trading periods. Fourteen of twenty-two experiments exhibit price bubbles followed by crashes relative to intrinsic dividend val...
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| Published in | Econometrica Vol. 56; no. 5; pp. 1119 - 1151 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Menasha, Wis
The Econometric Society
01.09.1988
George Banta Pub. Co. for the Econometric Society Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0012-9682 1468-0262 |
| DOI | 10.2307/1911361 |
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| Abstract | Spot asset trading is studied in an environment in which all investors receive the same dividend from a known probability distribution at the end of each of T = 15 (or 30) trading periods. Fourteen of twenty-two experiments exhibit price bubbles followed by crashes relative to intrinsic dividend value. When traders are experienced this reduces, but does not eliminate, the probability of a bubble. The regression of changes in mean price on lagged excess bids (number of bids minus the number of offers in the previous period), P"t - P"t-1 = @a = @b(B"t"-"1 - O"t"-"1), supports the hypothesis that -@a = E(d), the one-period expected value of the dividend, and that @b > O, where excess bids is a surrogate measure of excess demand arising from homegrown capital gains (losses) expectations. Thus when (B"t"-"1 - O"t"_"1) goes to zero we have convergence to rational expectations in the sense of Fama (1970), that arbitrage becomes unprofitable. The observed bubble phenomenon can also be interpreted as a form of temporary myopia (Tirole, 1982) from which agents learn that capital gains expectations are only temporarily sustainable, ultimately inducing common expectations, or "priors" (Tirole, 1982). Four of twenty-six experiments, all using experienced subjects, yield outcomes that appear to the "chart's eye" to converge "early" to rational expectations, although even in these cases we get @b > O, and small price fluctuations of a few cents that invite "scalping." |
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| AbstractList | Spot asset trading is studied in an environment in which all investors receive the same dividend from a known probability distribution at the end of each of T = 15 (or 30) trading periods. Fourteen of twenty-two experiments exhibit price bubbles followed by crashes relative to intrinsic dividend value. When traders are experienced this reduces, but does not eliminate, the probability of a bubble. The regression of changes in mean price on lagged excess bids (number of bids minus the number of offers in the previous period), P"t - P"t-1 = @a = @b(B"t"-"1 - O"t"-"1), supports the hypothesis that -@a = E(d), the one-period expected value of the dividend, and that @b > O, where excess bids is a surrogate measure of excess demand arising from homegrown capital gains (losses) expectations. Thus when (B"t"-"1 - O"t"_"1) goes to zero we have convergence to rational expectations in the sense of Fama (1970), that arbitrage becomes unprofitable. The observed bubble phenomenon can also be interpreted as a form of temporary myopia (Tirole, 1982) from which agents learn that capital gains expectations are only temporarily sustainable, ultimately inducing common expectations, or "priors" (Tirole, 1982). Four of twenty-six experiments, all using experienced subjects, yield outcomes that appear to the "chart's eye" to converge "early" to rational expectations, although even in these cases we get @b > O, and small price fluctuations of a few cents that invite "scalping." Spot asset trading is studied in an environment in which all investors receive the same dividend from a known probability distribution at the end of each of T=15 (or 30) trading periods. Fourteen of twenty-two experiments exhibit price bubbles followed by crashes relative to intrinsic dividend value. When traders are experienced this reduces, but does not eliminate, the probability of a bubble. The regression of changes in mean price on lagged excess bids (number of bids minus the number of offers in the previous period), Pt Pt 1 ... supports the hypothesis that =E(d), the one-period expected value of the dividend, and that > 0, where excess bids is a surrogate measure of excess demand arising from homegrown capital gains (losses) expectations. Thus, when (Bt-1 0t-1) goes to zero we have convergence to rational expectations in the sense of Fama (1970), that arbitrage becomes unprofitable. The observed bubble phenomenon can also be interpreted as a form of temporary myopia (Tirole, 1982) from which agents learn that capital gains expectations are only temporarily sustainable, ultimately inducing common expectations, or "priors" (Tirole, 1982). Four of twenty-six experiments, all using experienced subjects, yield outcomes that appear to the "chart's eye" to converge "early" to rational expectations, although even in these cases we get > 0, and small price fluctuations of a few cents that invite "scalping." |
| Author | Smith, Vernon L. Williams, Arlington W. Suchanek, Gerry L. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Vernon L. surname: Smith fullname: Smith, Vernon L. – sequence: 2 givenname: Gerry L. surname: Suchanek fullname: Suchanek, Gerry L. – sequence: 3 givenname: Arlington W. surname: Williams fullname: Williams, Arlington W. |
| BackLink | http://www.econis.eu/PPNSET?PPN=259326003$$DView this record in ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| CODEN | ECMTA7 |
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| Copyright | Copyright 1988 The Econometric Society Copyright Econometric Society Sep 1988 |
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| PublicationTitle | Econometrica |
| PublicationYear | 1988 |
| Publisher | The Econometric Society George Banta Pub. Co. for the Econometric Society Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
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| Snippet | Spot asset trading is studied in an environment in which all investors receive the same dividend from a known probability distribution at the end of each of T... Spot asset trading is studied in an environment in which all investors receive the same dividend from a known probability distribution at the end of each of... |
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| SubjectTerms | Analytical forecasting Arbitrage Asset markets Bids Börsenkurs Capital gains Dividend distributions Dividends Economic bubbles Economic expectations Equilibrium Expected values Experiments Market prices Marktmechanismus Null hypothesis Price level changes Rationale Erwartung Risk aversion Spekulationsblase Theorie |
| Title | Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets |
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