Effects of Different Initial Fields on GRAPES Numerical Prediction
In this paper, a heavy rainfall process occurring in the Huaihe River Basin during 9-10 July 2005 is studied by the new generation numerical weather prediction model system-GRAPES, from the view of different initial field effects on the prediction of the model. Several numerical experiments are cond...
Saved in:
Published in | Acta meteorologica Sinica Vol. 21; no. 4; pp. 496 - 506 |
---|---|
Main Author | |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Beijing
Springer Nature B.V
01.01.2007
Anhui Provincial Observatory,Hefei,230031%Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,210044%University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei,230026 |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
ISSN | 0894-0525 2191-4788 |
Cover
Abstract | In this paper, a heavy rainfall process occurring in the Huaihe River Basin during 9-10 July 2005 is studied by the new generation numerical weather prediction model system-GRAPES, from the view of different initial field effects on the prediction of the model. Several numerical experiments are conducted with the initial conditions and lateral boundary fields provided by T213 L31 and NCEP final analyses, respectively. The sensitivity of prediction products generated by GRAPES to different initial conditions, including effects of three-dimensional variational assimilation on the results, is discussed. After analyzing the differences between the two initial fields and the four simulated results, the memonic ability of the model to initial fields and their influences on precipitation forecast are investigated. Analyses show the obvious differences of sub-synoptic scale between T213 and NCEP initial fields, which result in the corresponding different simulation results, and the differences do not disappear with the integration running. It also shows that for the same initial field whether it has data assimilation or not, it only obviously influences the GRAPES model results in the initial 24 h. Then the differences reduce. In addition, both the location and intensity of heavy rain forecasted by GRAPES model Further is very close to the fact, but the forecasting area of strong torrential rain has some differences from the fact. For the same initial field when it has assimilation, the 9-12-, 12-24-, and 0-24-h precipitation forecasts of the model are better than those without assimilation. All these suggest that the ability of GRAPES numerical prediction depends on the different initial fields and lateral boundary conditions to some extent, and the differences of initial fields will determine the differences of GRAPES simulated results. |
---|---|
AbstractList | P4; In this paper, a heavy rainfall process occurring in the Huaihe River Basin during 9-10 July 2005 is studied by the new generation numerical weather prediction model system-GRAPES, from the view of different initial field effects on the prediction of the model. Several numerical experiments are conducted with the initial conditions and lateral boundary fields provided by T213 L31 and NCEP final analyses, respectively.The sensitivity of prediction products generated by GRAPES to different initial conditions, including effects of three-dimensional variational assimilation on the results, is discussed. After analyzing the differences between the two initial fields and the four simulated results, the memonic ability of the model to initial fields and their influences on precipitation forecast are investigated. Analyses show the obvious differences of sub-synoptic scale between T213 and NCEP initial fields, which result in the corresponding different simulation results, and the differences do not disappear with the integration running. It also shows that for the same initial field whether it has data assimilation or not, it only obviously influences the GRAPES model results in the initial 24 h. Then the differences reduce. In addition, both the location and intensity of heavy rain forecasted by GRAPES model Further is very close to the fact, but the forecasting area ofstrong torrential rain has some differences from the fact. For the same initial field when it has assimilation,the 9-12-, 12-24-, and 0-24-h precipitation forecasts of the model are better than those without assimilation.All these suggest that the ability of GRAPES numerical prediction depends on the different initial fields and lateral boundary conditions to some extent, and the differences of initial fields will determine the differences of GRAPES simulated results. In this paper, a heavy rainfall process occurring in the Huaihe River Basin during 9-10 July 2005 is studied by the new generation numerical weather prediction model system--GRAPES, from the view of different initial field effects on the prediction of the model. Several numerical experiments are conducted with the initial conditions and lateral boundary fields provided by T213 L31 and NCEP final analyses, respectively. The sensitivity of prediction products generated by GRAPES to different initial conditions, including effects of three-dimensional variational assimilation on the results, is discussed. After analyzing the differences between the two initial fields and the four simulated results, the memonic ability of the model to initial fields and their influences on precipitation forecast are investigated. Analyses show the obvious differences of sub-synoptic scale between T213 and NCEP initial fields, which result in the corresponding different simulation results, and the differences do not disappear with the integration running. It also shows that for the same initial field whether it has data assimilation or not, it only obviously influences the GRAPES model results in the initial 24 h. Then the differences reduce. In addition, both the location and intensity of heavy rain forecasted by GRAPES model Further is very close to the fact, but the forecasting area of strong torrential rain has some differences from the fact. For the same initial field when it has assimilation, the 9-12-, 12-24-, and 0-24-h precipitation forecasts of the model are better than those without assimilation. All these suggest that the ability of GRAPES numerical prediction depends on the different initial fields and lateral boundary conditions to some extent, and the differences of initial fields will determine the differences of GRAPES simulated results. In this paper, a heavy rainfall process occurring in the Huaihe River Basin during 9-10 July 2005 is studied by the new generation numerical weather prediction model system-GRAPES, from the view of different initial field effects on the prediction of the model. Several numerical experiments are conducted with the initial conditions and lateral boundary fields provided by T213 L31 and NCEP final analyses, respectively. The sensitivity of prediction products generated by GRAPES to different initial conditions, including effects of three-dimensional variational assimilation on the results, is discussed. After analyzing the differences between the two initial fields and the four simulated results, the memonic ability of the model to initial fields and their influences on precipitation forecast are investigated. Analyses show the obvious differences of sub-synoptic scale between T213 and NCEP initial fields, which result in the corresponding different simulation results, and the differences do not disappear with the integration running. It also shows that for the same initial field whether it has data assimilation or not, it only obviously influences the GRAPES model results in the initial 24 h. Then the differences reduce. In addition, both the location and intensity of heavy rain forecasted by GRAPES model Further is very close to the fact, but the forecasting area of strong torrential rain has some differences from the fact. For the same initial field when it has assimilation, the 9-12-, 12-24-, and 0-24-h precipitation forecasts of the model are better than those without assimilation. All these suggest that the ability of GRAPES numerical prediction depends on the different initial fields and lateral boundary conditions to some extent, and the differences of initial fields will determine the differences of GRAPES simulated results. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] |
Author | 朱红芳 王东勇 管兆勇 刘勇 傅云飞 |
AuthorAffiliation | Anhui Provincial Observatory, Hefei 230031 Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044 University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 |
AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: Anhui Provincial Observatory,Hefei,230031%Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,210044%University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei,230026 |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: 朱红芳 王东勇 管兆勇 刘勇 傅云飞 |
BookMark | eNpdkFtLAzEUhINUsK3-h8UHfVo4Oenm8lhrWwtFi5fnJZtNauo2a_eC_fkGKgo-zcB8zMCMyCDUwZ6RIVJF04mQckCGINUkhQyzCzJq2x0AE5LRIbmbO2dN1ya1S-599I0NXbIKvvO6ShbeVmXMQrJ8nm7mL8ljv7eNNzHaNLb0pvN1uCTnTletvfrRMXlbzF9nD-n6abmaTdepQYFdakoroCwM5dYhZ5pDgUAp1awsNBesxMyi0VplSgvhjARheOkAueJYiIKNye2p90sHp8M239V9E-Jifjgei9wigIAJUIjkzYn8bOpDb9su3_vW2KrSwdZ9m2M8ApjCCF7_A387qZLIpaTZH2Te67A9-LhcaPPhfGVz5FQqJiX7BjEvbb8 |
CODEN | AMTSEZ |
ClassificationCodes | P4 |
ContentType | Journal Article |
Copyright | Copyright China Meteorological Press 2007 Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
Copyright_xml | – notice: Copyright China Meteorological Press 2007 – notice: Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
DBID | 2RA 92L CQIGP W94 ~WA 3V. 7QH 7TG 7UA 7XB 88I 8FE 8FG 8FK ABUWG AEUYN AFKRA ARAPS ATCPS AZQEC BENPR BGLVJ BHPHI BKSAR C1K CCPQU DWQXO F1W GNUQQ H96 HCIFZ KL. L.G M2P P5Z P62 PATMY PCBAR PHGZM PHGZT PKEHL PQEST PQGLB PQQKQ PQUKI PRINS PYCSY Q9U 2B. 4A8 92I 93N PSX TCJ |
DatabaseName | 中文科技期刊数据库 中文科技期刊数据库-CALIS站点 中文科技期刊数据库-7.0平台 中文科技期刊数据库-自然科学 中文科技期刊数据库- 镜像站点 ProQuest Central (Corporate) Aqualine Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts Water Resources Abstracts ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016) Science Database (Alumni Edition) ProQuest SciTech Collection ProQuest Technology Collection ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016) ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition) ProQuest One Sustainability ProQuest Central UK/Ireland Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection ProQuest Central Essentials ProQuest Central Technology Collection Natural Science Collection Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management ProQuest One Community College ProQuest Central Korea ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts ProQuest Central Student Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources SciTech Premium Collection Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional Science Database Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection Environmental Science Database Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database ProQuest Central Premium ProQuest One Academic (New) ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New) ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE) ProQuest One Applied & Life Sciences ProQuest One Academic ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition ProQuest Central China Environmental Science Collection ProQuest Central Basic Wanfang Data Journals - Hong Kong WANFANG Data Centre Wanfang Data Journals 万方数据期刊 - 香港版 China Online Journals (COJ) China Online Journals (COJ) |
DatabaseTitle | Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional ProQuest Central Student Technology Collection ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New) ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection ProQuest Central Essentials ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition) SciTech Premium Collection ProQuest One Community College ProQuest Central China Water Resources Abstracts Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management ProQuest Central Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection ProQuest One Applied & Life Sciences ProQuest One Sustainability Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts Natural Science Collection ProQuest Central Korea Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection ProQuest Central (New) Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection ProQuest Science Journals (Alumni Edition) ProQuest Central Basic ProQuest Science Journals ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database ProQuest Technology Collection ProQuest SciTech Collection Aqualine Environmental Science Collection Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts Environmental Science Database ProQuest One Academic Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic ProQuest Central (Alumni) ProQuest One Academic (New) |
DatabaseTitleList | Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional |
Database_xml | – sequence: 1 dbid: 8FG name: ProQuest Technology Collection url: https://search.proquest.com/technologycollection1 sourceTypes: Aggregation Database |
DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
Discipline | Meteorology & Climatology |
DocumentTitleAlternate | Effects of Different Initial Fields on GRAPES Numerical Prediction |
EISSN | 2191-4788 |
EndPage | 506 |
ExternalDocumentID | qxxb_e200704010 1621662361 26189388 |
Genre | Feature |
GeographicLocations | China, People's Rep., Huaihe R |
GeographicLocations_xml | – name: China, People's Rep., Huaihe R |
GrantInformation_xml | – fundername: 安徽省气象厅资助项目; 安徽省气象厅资助项目; NKBRDPC funderid: (0504); (0601); (2004CB418304) |
GroupedDBID | -EM 0R~ 0VY 23M 2KG 2RA 30V 3V. 4.4 406 408 5GY 67M 7XC 88I 8FE 8FG 8FH 8R4 8R5 8TC 92L 95. 96X AARTL ABFTV ABJOX ABKCH ABTMW ABUWG ACGFS ACGOD ADURQ ADYFF AEGNC AEOHA AEXYK AFKRA AFRAH AFWTZ AGDGC AGQMX AHYZX AJRNO ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS AMKLP ARAPS ATCPS AZQEC BENPR BGLVJ BGNMA BHPHI BKSAR BPHCQ CQIGP CW9 D1K DWQXO DX2 EBS EJD GNUQQ GQ6 HCIFZ HF~ HMJXF HRMNR HZ~ I0C JBSCW K6- KOV L8X LK5 M2P M4Y M7R NQJWS NU0 O9- OK1 P2P P62 PATMY PCBAR PQEST PQQKQ PQUKI PRINS PROAC PYCSY Q2X R9I RLLFE RSV S.. S27 S3B SCL SEV SHX SNE SNX SOJ T13 TSG U2A UG4 W94 ~A9 ~WA 7QH 7TG 7UA 7XB 8FK AEUYN C1K CCPQU F1W H96 KL. L.G PHGZM PHGZT PKEHL PQGLB Q9U PUEGO 2B. 4A8 92I 93N DPUIP PMFND PSX ROL TCJ |
ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c272t-cde70dbc16ef263a60b20111a3dba673d25e2caa959a77fc807c6df026962b7b3 |
IEDL.DBID | 8FG |
ISSN | 0894-0525 |
IngestDate | Thu May 29 04:06:29 EDT 2025 Fri Sep 05 02:43:28 EDT 2025 Fri Jul 25 03:49:01 EDT 2025 Fri Nov 25 19:10:34 EST 2022 |
IsPeerReviewed | false |
IsScholarly | false |
Issue | 4 |
Keywords | NCEP T213 L31 GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System) initial fields three-dimensional variational assimilation |
Language | English |
LinkModel | DirectLink |
MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c272t-cde70dbc16ef263a60b20111a3dba673d25e2caa959a77fc807c6df026962b7b3 |
Notes | P45 11-2277/P GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System), T213 L31, NCEP, initial fields, three-dimensional variational assimilation SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 14 ObjectType-Article-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
PQID | 198268815 |
PQPubID | 30770 |
PageCount | 11 |
ParticipantIDs | wanfang_journals_qxxb_e200704010 proquest_miscellaneous_20520392 proquest_journals_198268815 chongqing_backfile_26189388 |
PublicationCentury | 2000 |
PublicationDate | 2007-01-01 |
PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2007-01-01 |
PublicationDate_xml | – month: 01 year: 2007 text: 2007-01-01 day: 01 |
PublicationDecade | 2000 |
PublicationPlace | Beijing |
PublicationPlace_xml | – name: Beijing |
PublicationTitle | Acta meteorologica Sinica |
PublicationTitleAlternate | Acta Meteorologica Sinica |
PublicationTitle_FL | ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA |
PublicationYear | 2007 |
Publisher | Springer Nature B.V Anhui Provincial Observatory,Hefei,230031%Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,210044%University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei,230026 |
Publisher_xml | – name: Springer Nature B.V – name: Anhui Provincial Observatory,Hefei,230031%Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,210044%University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei,230026 |
SSID | ssj0037831 |
Score | 1.4068441 |
Snippet | In this paper, a heavy rainfall process occurring in the Huaihe River Basin during 9-10 July 2005 is studied by the new generation numerical weather prediction... P4; In this paper, a heavy rainfall process occurring in the Huaihe River Basin during 9-10 July 2005 is studied by the new generation numerical weather... |
SourceID | wanfang proquest chongqing |
SourceType | Aggregation Database Publisher |
StartPage | 496 |
SubjectTerms | Data assimilation Data processing Experiments Influence Meteorology Precipitation Rain River basins 三维可变同化 初始场 天气预报 数值预报 |
Title | Effects of Different Initial Fields on GRAPES Numerical Prediction |
URI | http://lib.cqvip.com/qk/88418X/20074/26189388.html https://www.proquest.com/docview/198268815 https://www.proquest.com/docview/20520392 https://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/periodical/qxxb-e200704010 |
Volume | 21 |
hasFullText | 1 |
inHoldings | 1 |
isFullTextHit | |
isPrint | |
journalDatabaseRights | – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: ProQuest Central customDbUrl: http://www.proquest.com/pqcentral?accountid=15518 eissn: 2191-4788 dateEnd: 20071031 omitProxy: true ssIdentifier: ssj0037831 issn: 0894-0525 databaseCode: BENPR dateStart: 20050101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://www.proquest.com/central providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: ProQuest Technology Collection customDbUrl: eissn: 2191-4788 dateEnd: 20071031 omitProxy: true ssIdentifier: ssj0037831 issn: 0894-0525 databaseCode: 8FG dateStart: 20050101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://search.proquest.com/technologycollection1 providerName: ProQuest |
link | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwfV1LS8NAEF60RfQiPrFW6x7EWzDZZB89SdXWB1hKVfAWdjebIkpiX-jPdyZJq148hiEJ2RlmvnlkPkJOjc-VVJp7CejbizQPPBNFkeeEtb50NgxtMW3RF7fP0f0Lf6lmc6bVWOXCJxaOOskt1sjPITlmQqmAX3yMPSSNwuZqxaCxSuoBA0PCH8V7NwtHHEpV0hEq3H7LkQx7HVxKNhpDUPgDKNc-dZbqbPQrsvS2yGYFCWmn1OE2WXHZDmk8AJrNJ0XRm57Rq_dXgJbF1S65LFcOT2me0uuK4GRG73AMCJ7Tw5k0kGX0ZtgZdB9pf152Zd7pYIJtGVTFHnnudZ-ubr2KC8GzTLKZZxMn_cTYQLgUPlUL32DoDnSYGC1kmDDumNW6zdtaytQqX1qRpJBhtQUz0oT7pJblmTsgVPK0HaooQsLSSDOD-2JEIpQ1gAYhYWyQ5vKYIJbaN9wQFUOmBdBGKZAuDi6uzH0aL5XTICdLKdgpNh905vL5NGY4cANgrEFoddo_t4-_vkzssGoKLiXwD_99RZNslPVVLIMckdpsMnfHAAxmplWov0Xql93-YPgND866mA |
linkProvider | ProQuest |
linkToHtml | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwtV1LT9wwEB5RqopeKvoSW1rwoe0tamLHjz1UFQWW3QIr1ILELbUdB1VFSfcl6I_iPzKTx0IvvXGMrDjSeDzzzSPzAbx3sTTaWBnleN5RamUSuTRNo6C8j3XwQvi622Kshmfpt3N5vgI33b8w1FbZ2cTaUOeVpxz5JwyOuTImkV_-TCIijaLiaseg0WjFYfh7hRHb7PNoD4_3A-eD_dPdYdSSCkSeaz6PfB50nDufqFBwJayKHfnAxIrcWaVFzmXg3tq-7FutC29i7VVeYKjSV9xpJ3DfR_A4FULQqH4zOOgMv9CmoT80NG1XEvn2Gpqw8mKCTugfAPvkypaFLS_uebLBOjxrISjbaXTmOayE8gX0jhE9V9M6yc4-st3LXwhl66eX8LUZcTxjVcH2WkKVORtR2xHuM6AeOFwr2cH3nZP9H2y8aKpAl-xkSmUgOvpXcPYgYnoNq2VVhg1gWhZ9YdKUCFJTyx3Np1G5Mt4h-sQAtQebSzGh7_a_aSJVhpEdQiljcLUTXNZer1m2VIYebC9X8V5QscOWoVrMMk4NPgj-esBaad-9Prm-dlmgLC2asCR-899PbMPa8PT4KDsajQ834WmT26UUzFtYnU8X4R2CkrnbqlWBwc-H1r1bGYH2lA |
linkToPdf | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwtV1Lb9QwEB6VrXhcEE-xFKgPwC1q4sSPPVSo7e7SpbBaFSr1FmzHqRBVwr7U8hP5V8wkzgIXbj1GVhxpMp755uH5AF7bWGiljYgK_N9RZkQS2SzLIi-di5V3aeqaboupPD7LPpyL8y341d2FobbKziY2hrqoHeXI9zA45lLrROyVoStiNhy_-zGPiECKCq0dm4YJLAvFfjNtLNzxOPE_rzCaW-5Phvjr33A-Hn05Oo4C4UDkuOKryBVexYV1ifQll6mRsSX_mJi0sEaqtODCc2fMQAyMUqXTsXKyKDGMGUhulU1x31uwrei6aA-2D0fT2WnnFlKlW3JETbN4BVFz30UDV13M0UX9A29vX5mqNNXFX35u_ADuB4DKDlqNeghbvnoE_U-IretFk4Jnb9nR5TcEus3TYzhsByAvWV2yYaBbWbEJNSXhPmPqkMO1ir0_PZiNPrPpuq0RXbLZgopEpBhP4OxGBPUUelVd-WfAlCgHqc4yok_NDLc0vUYWUjuL2BTD1z7sbMSEnt19p3lVOcZ9CLS0xtVOcHk4fMt8oyp92N2s4qmhUoipfL1e5pzafxAa9oEFaf95fX59bXNPOVw0cEn8_L-f2IU7qIf5x8n0ZAfutYlfys-8gN5qsfYvEbGs7KugCwy-3rT6_QZ9jQF9 |
openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Effects+of+Different+Initial+Fields+on+GRAPES+Numerical+Prediction&rft.jtitle=Acta+meteorologica+Sinica&rft.au=Hongfang%2C+Zhu&rft.au=Dongyong%2C+Wang&rft.au=Zhaoyong%2C+Guan&rft.au=Yong%2C+Liu&rft.date=2007-01-01&rft.pub=Springer+Nature+B.V&rft.issn=0894-0525&rft.eissn=2191-4788&rft.volume=21&rft.issue=4&rft.spage=496&rft.externalDBID=HAS_PDF_LINK&rft.externalDocID=1621662361 |
thumbnail_s | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/image/custom?url=http%3A%2F%2Fimage.cqvip.com%2Fvip1000%2Fqk%2F88418X%2F88418X.jpg http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/image/custom?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wanfangdata.com.cn%2Fimages%2FPeriodicalImages%2Fqxxb-e%2Fqxxb-e.jpg |