Prognostic Classification Factors Associated With Development of Multiple Autoantibodies, Dysglycemia, and Type 1 Diabetes—A Recursive Partitioning Analysis

• Published in: Diabetes care Vol. 39; no. 6; pp. 1036 - 1044
• Main Authors: Xu, Ping, Krischer, Jeffrey P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States American Diabetes Association 01.06.2016
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Age Factors; Antigens; Autoantibodies - immunology; C-Peptide - metabolism; Cation Transport Proteins - immunology; Child; Cohort Studies; Diabetes; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 - genetics; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 - immunology; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 - metabolism; Disease Progression; Female; Genotype; Glucose Metabolism Disorders - genetics; Glucose Metabolism Disorders - immunology; Glucose Metabolism Disorders - metabolism; Glutamate Decarboxylase - immunology; HLA-DQ alpha-Chains - genetics; HLA-DQ beta-Chains - genetics; Humans; Insulin - immunology; Male; Medical prognosis; Multivariate Analysis; Pathophysiology/Complications; Peptides; Prognosis; Prospective Studies; Risk; Young Adult; Zinc Transporter 8
• ISSN: 0149-5992; 1935-5548; 1935-5548
• DOI: 10.2337/dc15-2292

To define prognostic classification factors associated with the progression from single to multiple autoantibodies, multiple autoantibodies to dysglycemia, and dysglycemia to type 1 diabetes onset in relatives of individuals with type 1 diabetes. Three distinct cohorts of subjects from the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study were investigated separately. A recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used to determine the risk classes. Clinical characteristics, including genotype, antibody titers, and metabolic markers were analyzed. Age and GAD65 autoantibody (GAD65Ab) titers defined three risk classes for progression from single to multiple autoantibodies. The 5-year risk was 11% for those subjects >16 years of age with low GAD65Ab titers, 29% for those ≤16 years of age with low GAD65Ab titers, and 45% for those subjects with high GAD65Ab titers regardless of age. Progression to dysglycemia was associated with islet antigen 2 Ab titers, and 2-h glucose and fasting C-peptide levels. The 5-year risk is 28%, 39%, and 51% for respective risk classes defined by the three predictors. Progression to type 1 diabetes was associated with the number of positive autoantibodies, peak C-peptide level, HbA1c level, and age. Four risk classes defined by RPA had a 5-year risk of 9%, 33%, 62%, and 80%, respectively. The use of RPA offered a new classification approach that could predict the timing of transitions from one preclinical stage to the next in the development of type 1 diabetes. Using these RPA classes, new prevention techniques can be tailored based on the individual prognostic risk characteristics at different preclinical stages.