Optimal electric load forecasting for systems by an adaptive Crow Search Algorithm: A case study

• Published in: Concurrency and computation Vol. 34; no. 21
• Main Authors: Li, Bo, Sun, Hongbin, Teimourian, Milad
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Hoboken, USA John Wiley & Sons, Inc 25.09.2022; Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
• Subjects: Adaptive algorithms; Adaptive Crow Search Optimizer; Algorithms; Case studies; electric load; Electrical loads; Forecasting; Heuristic methods; Regression; Search algorithms; Support vector machines; Support Vector Regression; South Korea
• ISSN: 1532-0626; 1532-0634
• DOI: 10.1002/cpe.7120

Summary In this paper, a new technique is suggested for best electric load forecasting of South Korea. The proposed study is based on an improved metaheuristic methodology. This paper proposes a new improved version of Support Vector Machine for Regression (SVR) base on the proposed algorithm. The algorithm is based on a modified version of Crow Search Algorithm (ACSA), where, by combining by the SVR, generates an efficient classifier. Although, different drawbacks of using original CSA are stated, the proposed ACSA method provides a proper modification for resolving of these shortcomings. The forecasting model has been then performed to a historical data from South Korea to indicate the algorithm efficiency and the results are compared with some other methods, including SVR‐CGA, SVR‐CAS, ANN, and simple Regression to show the suggested method performance. Final results show that MAPD, MSE, and RMSE values of the test data with lower values for South, North, Center, and East, provided better results based on the proposed SVR‐ACSA based on different values of center and kernel of the SVR. Experimental results on the case study shows that the minimum MAPD has been added which is happened in Northern regional is 1.1062, 1.1336, 1.1065, 1.02, 2.23, 1.96, and 1.49 for SVR‐ACSA, SVR‐CGA, SVR‐CAS, ANN, Regression, LSTM‐RNN, and ELM which indicates the method's higher efficiency.