Convolutional Neural Networks for Predicting Power Outages in Baghdad

• Published in: Al-Nahrain journal for engineering sciences Vol. 28; no. 2; pp. 212 - 223
• Main Authors: Jawad, Saja Jafar, Al-Shammari, Shaymaa. W.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Al-Nahrain Journal for Engineering Sciences 19.07.2025
• Subjects: Baghdad City; CNN; Deep Learning; Electricity Outage
• ISSN: 2521-9154; 2521-9162
• DOI: 10.29194/NJES.28020212

Power outages are a common and persistent problem in Iraq, significantly impacting various aspects of life and business. These interruptions disrupt routine household tasks and hinder more complex technical operations in industries and services. Emphasizing the need for careful management and proactive solutions. This paper introduces a real-world time series dataset for Baghdad city, including historical outages, weather conditions (such as temperature), and power overloads, and analyzes the correlation among these parameters in different seasons. The research uses this dataset to train one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1D CNN) to find patterns and relationships that can accurately predict when power outages can happen in the long term and short term to improve the management of the Baghdad electricity grid through data-driven networks. This model was evaluated using performance metrics, and the results show that CNN is accurate in predicting outages in the short term with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of (0.0077), whereas, in the long term, it has achieved an MAE of (0.0775). These predictive models have the potential to facilitate the development of proactive measures aimed at reducing the impact of power outages by anticipating potential outages in advance. This research focuses on enhancing the reliability and efficiency of Baghdad's electricity supply, ultimately contributing to economic growth and stability.