Non-Equilibrium Social Science and Policy Introduction and Essays on New and Changing Paradigms in Socio-Economic Thinking

• Main Authors: Johnson, Jeffrey, Nowak, Andrzej, Ormerod, Paul, Rosewell, Bridget, Zhang, Yi-Cheng
• Format: eBook Book Publication
• Language: English
• Published: Cham Springer Nature 2017; Springer Open; Springer International Publishing AG; Springer
• Edition: 1
• Series: Understanding Complex Systems
• Subjects: Antiques, vintage and collectables; Applied Dynamical Systems; Astronomy, space and time; Behavioral economics; Biotechnology; Business and Management; Collecting coins, banknotes, medals and other related items; Complex socio-economic systems; Complex Systems; Complexity; Complexity, Computational; Computational complexity; Computational Social Sciences; Computer applications in the social & behavioural sciences; Computers; Cybernetics & systems theory; Cybernetics and systems theory; Data-driven Science; Decision making; Dynamics; Ecological science; Econometrics; Economic theory; Economic theory & philosophy; Economic theory and philosophy; Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods; Economics; Economics, Finance, Business and Management; Econophysics; Econophysics and Social Dynamics; Energy industries and utilities; Engineering; Gleichgewichtstheorie; Industry and industrial studies; Information economy and policy informatics; Information theory; Lifestyle, Hobbies and Leisure; Management decision making; Mathematics and Science; Mathematics. Analysis; Methodology of the Social Sciences; Modeling and Theory Building; Nonlinear theories; Operation Research/Decision Theory; Operational research; Operations research; Operations Research and Decision Theory; Operations Research/Decision Theory; Paradigm shift in economic thinking; Physics; Quantitative Economics; Quantitative social sciences; Reference, Information and Interdisciplinary subjects; Research and information: general; Social Aspects; Social dynamics in policy; Social research & statistics; Social research and statistics; Social sciences; Social sciences-Computer programs; Social sciences-Data processing; Society and Social Sciences; Sociology; Sociology and anthropology; Sociology—Methodology; Sociophysics; Sozialwissenschaft; System theory; the Biosphere; Wirtschaftswissenschaft
• ISBN: 9783319424248; 3319424246; 9783319424224; 331942422X
• DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-42424-8

The overall aim of this book, an outcome of the European FP7 FET Open NESS project, is to contribute to the ongoing effort to put the quantitative social sciences on a proper footing for the 21st century. A key focus is economics, and its implications on policy making, where the still dominant tradi...

Table of Contents:

• 3 Narratives in Global Systems Science and Policy -- 4 Prediction and Policy -- 4.1 Point prediction -- 4.2 Extreme Events -- 4.3 Unintended Consequences -- 4.4 Definitive Predictions are Impossible in Social Systems -- 4.5 Exploring the Future -- 5 Systems, Complexity and Prediction for Policy -- 5.1 Systems -- 5.2 Complexity -- 5.3 The Integrative Science of Complex Systems -- 6 Policy Informatics: Tools for Exploring the Future -- 6.1 Data for Policy -- 6.2 Agent-Based Modelling for Policy Exploration -- 6.3 Synthetic Micropopulations -- 6.4 Visualisation and Visual Analytics -- 7 Citizens in the Policy Loop -- 8 GSS Coordinating Policy Makers, Citizens and Scientists -- 8.1 Policy Design -- 8.2 The GSS Policy Process -- 9 Conclusion -- References -- Index
• 3.2 Feedback -- 3.2.1 Negative Feedback -- 3.2.2 Positive Feedback -- 3.2.3 Interacting Feedback Loops -- 3.2.4 Oscillating Feedback Mechanisms -- 3.3 Computing System Behaviour -- 3.3.1 Coupled Populations -- 3.3.2 Computing State Transitions -- 3.3.3 Boundedness and Phase Change -- 3.3.4 Sensitivity to Initial Conditions -- 3.3.5 System Dynamics -- 3.4 Equilibrium -- 3.5 Multilevel Systems -- 4 Networks -- 4.1 Small World Networks -- 4.2 Statistical Properties of Networks -- 4.3 Orientation and Relational Asymmetry -- 4.4 Percolation -- 4.5 Motifs -- 4.6 Multiplex Networks -- 4.7 Hypergraphs and Simplicial Complexes -- 4.8 Hypernetnetworks -- 5 Networks and Policy -- 5.1 The Use of Financial Services -- 5.2 Obesity -- 5.3 Smoking -- 5.4 Searching for Sadam -- 6 Systems and Networks Theory Informing Policy -- 7 Conclusions: Systems, Networks, and Policy -- References -- Towards a Complexity-Friendly Policy: Breaking the Vicious Circle of Equilibrium Thinking in Economics and Public Policy -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Mechanistic Approach of Conventional Policy -- 3 The Underestimation of Complex Network Effects in Economic and Health Policies -- 3.1 Network Implications for the Regulation of Financial Markets -- 3.2 The Network Medicine Approach to Public Health Policy -- 4 Challenges Towards a Complexity-Friendly Policy -- References -- The Information Economy -- 1 Information as Bottleneck for Economic Transactions -- 2 The Gray Cognitive Zone -- 3 Information Institutions -- 4 Matching with Partial Information, SMP Revisited -- 5 The Fundamental Asymmetry -- 6 Diversification -- 7 Conclusion: The Non-equilibrium Paradigm -- References -- Complexity Science and the Art of Policy Making -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Proof and the Force of Tradition: Transport Policy -- 2.1 Proof in Policy -- 2.2 Models, Proof and Tradition -- 2.3 Agglomeration
• 3 Sociology and Sociology and Non/equilibrium Sciences -- 4 Sociology and Agent-Based Modelling -- 5 Sociology and Policy -- 6 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Geography Far from Equilibrium -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Local or Temporary Stabilities Instead of General Equilibrium -- 3 Increasing Inequalities with Urban Development -- 3.1 Asymmetries in the Accumulation Process -- 3.2 Increasing Divergence in Accessibility as Transportation Speed Increases -- 3.3 Continuous Proactive Adaptation in an Open Evolution -- 4 Geographical Tools for Managing and Anticipating the State of the World -- References -- Cities in Disequilibrium -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Equilibrium, Steady States, Feedback and Urban Dynamics -- 3 From Catastrophe and Bifurcation to Chaos -- 4 Cities as Far-from-Equilibrium Structures -- 5 Creation and Destruction: Radical Change From Innovations in Technology -- 6 Reflections -- References -- Global Political Dynamics and the Science of Complex Systems -- 1 Introduction: Interaction, Co-evolution and Specialization as Sources of Diversity in Highly Interconnected Societies -- 2 Global Political Economy and Development -- 3 Political Science and International Political Economy -- 4 The Evolutionary Dynamics of Densely Connected Societies -- 5 The Behavioural Mechanisms of Policy Diffusion: Decision-Making, Collective Learning and the Persistence of Objectively Inferior Choices -- 6 Parallel Processing -- 7 Fitness Landscapes: How Ecology Affects Decision-Making -- 8 Niche Construction Theory: Global Development Through Variation -- 9 Convergence is Just One Option -- 10 Evolutionary Stables Strategies in Political Economy: What Should Global Public Policy Optimise? -- References -- Systems, Networks, and Policy -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Policy -- 3 Systems -- 3.1 System Diagrams -- 3.1.1 The Bovine Tuberculosis-Badger Culling System
• Intro -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Non-Equilibrium Social Science and Policy -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Non-Equilibrium Social Sciences -- 2.1 Social Psychology and the Narrative Economy -- 2.2 Sociology and Non-Equilibrium Social Science -- 2.3 Geography Far from Equilibrium -- 2.4 Cities in Disequilibrium -- 2.5 International Relations -- 2.6 Systems, Networks and Policy -- 2.7 Complexity Friendly Economics -- 2.8 The Information Economy -- 2.9 Towards a New Economics -- 3 Social Science in Policy -- 3.1 Complexity Science and the Art of Policy Making -- 3.2 The Complexity of Government -- 3.3 Context-Dependency in the Social Sciences -- 3.4 Global Systems Science and Policy -- 4 Conclusion: A Roadmap for Further Research -- 4.1 Research Theme 1: Realistic Models of Agent Behaviour in the Twenty-first Century -- 4.2 Research Theme 2: Multi-level Systems -- 4.3 Research Theme 3: Policy Informatics -- 4.4 Research Theme 4: Narratives and Decision Making Under Uncertainty -- 4.5 Research Theme 5: Validation of Agent-Based Complex System Models -- 4.6 Research Theme 6: Global Systems Science -- References -- Economics -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Core Model of Economic Theory: `Rational' Choice -- 2.1 The Background -- 2.2 The Key Assumptions -- 2.3 A Challenge -- 2.4 Developments -- 2.5 The Current Situation -- 3 Moving Forward -- 3.1 The Core Model of Behaviour -- 3.2 Networks -- 3.3 Growth and the Business Cycle -- 3.4 Sentiment, Narratives and Uncertainty -- 4 Summary and Conclusion -- References -- Social Psychology and the Narrative Economy -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Levels of the System -- 3 The Myth of Rational Decision Making at the Microlevel -- 4 The Mesolevel -- 5 The Macrolevel -- 6 The New Agent -- 7 Narratives -- 8 Conclusions -- References -- Sociology and Non-Equilibrium Social Science -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Sociology in a Nutshell
• 2.4 Privileging Tradition Over Evidence and Proof -- 3 Optimality and Optioneering: Competition Policy and Innovation -- 3.1 Optimality, Perfect Competition, and Policy -- 3.2 Complex Systems, Regulation and Decision Making -- 3.3 The Myth of the Utility Optimising Consumer: Copying and Nudge -- 3.4 Policy and the Myth of the Profit Maximising Firm -- 3.5 Innovation and Networks -- 3.6 Innovation and Optioneering -- 4 Other Things are not Equal: Cities, Devolution, and Growth -- 4.1 The Do Nothing Policy Option -- 4.2 Central Planning -- 4.3 Options Versus Optimality: The Dynamics of Policy Formulation -- 5 Conclusion: The Additionality Bugbear -- References -- The Complexity of Government -- 1 Introduction and Overview -- 2 Interaction and Collective Acts -- 2.1 The Networked Pin Factory -- 3 Collective Action and Social Governance -- 3.1 First and Second-Order Collective Action -- 3.2 Social Governance -- 3.3 Higher-Order Governance -- 4 The Libertarian Challenge -- 4.1 First Critique of Libertarianism -- 4.2 Second Critique of Libertarianism -- 5 The Complexity of Government -- 5.1 Tentative Ideas -- 5.2 Complexity Science -- References -- The Room Around the Elephant: Tackling Context-Dependency in the Social Sciences -- 1 Introduction -- 2 About Context -- 3 Avoidance Strategy 1: `Signal Plus Noise' Data-Fitting -- 4 Avoidance Strategy 2: Behavioural Foundationalism -- 5 Avoidance Strategy 3: Retreat into Specificity -- 6 Way Forward 1: Data-Mining Clues to Social Context -- 7 Way Forward 2: Context-Dependent Simulation Modelling -- 8 Way Forward 3: Combining Qualitative and Formal Approaches -- 9 Concluding Discussion -- References -- Global Systems Science and Policy -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Examples of Global Systems -- 2.1 Epidemiology -- 2.2 Finance -- 2.3 Cities -- 2.4 The Internet -- 2.5 Climate Change